CARDIFF, Wales, November 17 – The statistics are stark and the stakes are high for Welsh rugby on Sunday.
Wales will sink to an all-time results low in their 143-year international rugby history if they lose to Australia in Cardiff.
Defeat against Fiji last weekend saw Wales equal a run of 10 Test losses set under Warren Gatland’s fellow New Zealander Steve Hansen in 2002 and 2003.
Lose to the Wallabies and Warren Gatland’s side will be the first Wales side to suffer 11 consecutive international defeats.
Since beating Georgia at the World Cup in October 2023, Wales have been toppled by Argentina, Scotland, England, Ireland, France, Italy, South Africa, Australia (twice) and Fiji.
With world champions South Africa looming on 23 November, Wales could go through a whole calendar year without winning a Test, which they have not experienced since 1937 when they lost three games in that 12 months.
Gatland under pressure
Since returning for a second stint as Wales boss prior to the 2023 Six Nations, Gatland has overseen just six wins from 22 Tests.
Wales finished bottom of the Six Nations this year for the first time since 2003 and have slipped to their lowest position of 11th in the world rankings.
This downturn starkly contrasts with his first 12-year spell which delivered World Cup semi-final appearances, Six Nations titles, Grand Slams and briefly world number one status.
Critics, including former Wales players Mike Phillips, Tom Shanklin, Dan Biggar and Welsh Rugby Union non executive independent board member Jamie Roberts, have taken aim at Gatland leading up to Australia’s Principality Stadium visit, and media duties included a number of questions about his future.
The 61-year-old says he has not thought about stepping away and that he is comfortable with any decisions which might be made.
He knows though that his Wales side need a win like never before.
Australia on the rise
It was only just over a year ago on a sultry Sunday night in Lyon that Wales put Australia to the sword.
They cruised into the World Cup quarter-finals by posting a record 40-6 win that underlined Australia’s demise under Eddie Jones.
The Wallabies ultimately made a pool-stage exit and head coach Jones departed just two months later.
But Wales have won only one subsequent Test match, with Australia now in the hands of former Ireland boss Joe Schmidt.
The Wallabies won both Tests of a summer series against Wales this year, and although five defeats followed in the Rugby Championship, Australia hit a new high under Schmidt by defeating England in their autumn opener with a last-gasp try in the 42-37 victory.
The challenge for Schmidt’s side is if they can back that up eight days later.
Team news
Wales have made four changes with wing Mason Grady and scrum-half Tomos Williams both injured.
Williams suffered a shoulder injury during the defeat by Fiji and is replaced by Ellis Bevan, while Scarlets wing Tom Rogers takes over from Grady who picked up an ankle problem.
The absence of Williams and Grady means Wales fly-half Gareth Anscombe, who will win his 39th cap on Sunday, has made 13 more international appearances than the rest of the six members of the Welsh backline combined.
The Welsh backline is also one of the smallest selected by Gatland.
Elsewhere, Ospreys flanker Jac Morgan will make his first Test start in 13 months, having last featured in a Wales Test line-up against World Cup quarter-final opponents Argentina before knee and hamstring injuries sidelined him for last season’s Six Nations and the summer tour to Australia.
Morgan replaces open-side flanker Tommy Reffell and James Botham also earns a back-row opportunity, wearing the number six shirt instead of Taine Plumtree.
Schmidt has made six changes from the side that accounted for England, including exciting midfield prospect Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii moving out of the starting XV and dropping down to the replacements bench.
Samu Kerevi replaces Suaalii, while prop Allan Alaalatoa starts as captain with Harry Wilson sidelined by concussion.
Wilson’s absence from the back row means a first Test start for flanker Seru Uru, with Rob Valetini moving across to number eight, while lock Will Skelton, scrum-half Nic White and last weekend’s match-winner, wing Max Jorgensen, also starting.
Kerevi and Valetini will win their 50th caps.
Line-ups and officials
Wales: Winnett; Rogers, Llewellyn, B Thomas, Murray; Anscombe, Bevan; G Thomas, Lake (capt), Griffin, Rowlands, Beard, Botham, Morgan, Wainwright.
Replacements: Elias, N Smith, Assiratti, Tshiunza, Reffell, R Williams, Costelow, James.
Australia: Wright; Kellaway, Ikitau, Kerevi, Jorgensen; Lolesio, White; Bell, Faessler, Alaalatoa, Frost, Skelton, Uru, McReight, Valetini.
Replacements: Paenga-Amosa, Slipper, Nonggorr, Salakaia-Loto, Gleeson, McDermott, Donaldson, Suaalii.
Referee: James Doleman (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England), Angus Mabey (New Zealand)
Television match official (TMO): Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
