COLOGNE, Germany, June 24 – England face Slovenia in Cologne on Tuesday knowing anything other than defeat will guarantee them a place in the last 16.
Gareth Southgate’s men sit top of Group C having taken four points from the opening two games.
No team has ever got four points in the group stage and not qualified in a 24-team Euros – and their progression could even have been wrapped up before they play.
But following their performance in the 1-1 draw with Denmark – in the second group game – changes are expected to the XI, with Chelsea midfielder Conor Gallagher expected to make his first start of Euro 2024.
Group C – What do England need?
England need to avoid defeat against Slovenia in their final group game on Tuesday to guarantee progressing from Group C.
A win will assure Southgate’s side advance as group winners.
If Denmark beat Serbia and England draw then the two will be equal on points and who wins the group will go down to goal difference.
If Denmark fail to win, then England will qualify regardless of their result against Slovenia.
England could also still qualify in third place, and they would be guaranteed that at least should Albania not beat Spain in Group B on Monday.
Matches remaining in Group C
England v Slovenia (Tuesday, 20:00 BST)
Denmark v Serbia (Tuesday, 20:00 BST)
Who could England face in last 16?
If England beat Slovenia and advance to the last 16 as group winners, they will play one of the best third-places sides from Group D, E or F. They are Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic as it stands.
But should they not top the group, they will play hosts Germany for a place in the quarter-finals.
A third-place spot would mean England face the winners of Group E or F, which are Romania and Portugal with one game to go.
Can Slovenia still progress?
Slovenia have drawn their opening two group games of Euro 2024 and their hopes of reaching the last 16 are still alive.
Should Matjaz Kek’s side beat England they will automatically progress to the knockout stages.
A draw would only be enough to guarantee second place if Denmark draw with Serbia and Slovenia possess the advantage on goals scored.
Southgate’s selection headache
Southgate could have a selection headache for the final group match on Tuesday.
The midfield “experiment” of Trent Alexander-Arnold received criticism following the draw to Denmark.
BBC Sport currently understands that Gallagher is likely to come into the England starting XI in his place, ahead of other alternative midfield options such as Kobbie Mainoo or Adam Wharton.
Chelsea’s Gallagher has been a second-half substitute in both England’s games so far.
The debate rolls on around Phil Foden, so could Southgate opt for Anthony Gordon to increase the pace down the left-hand side, or even Cole Palmer?
Elsewhere, England left-back Luke Shaw returned to team training on Monday but is still not available for selection.
Kieran Trippier has been filling in for the injured Shaw, but should he choose to rest the natural right-back, BBC Sport understands that there is a strong possibility that Aston Villa defender Ezri Konsa could come into that position.
Slovenia’s star forward Benjamin Sesko is expected to start despite being withdrawn with a quad issue against Serbia on Thursday.
