NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 18 — Senior Counsel Ahmednassir Abdullahi has launched a scathing critique of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), declaring the party politically “dead” following the death of its founder Raila Odinga.
The outspoken lawyer dismissed efforts interim party leader Oburu Odinga’s to project ODM as a viable national force as futile.
In a hard-hitting political commentary, Ahmednassir described Raila as the most consequential politician in Kenya over the past three decades, crediting him with building ODM into a dominant political machine and serving as the country’s “centre of gravity” for years.
“He built a political behemoth called ODM. He lost every presidential election he participated in but won in every post-presidential election realignment. For three decades, Raila was Kenya’s political centre of gravity,” Ahmednassir said.
“Nothing moved without his nod or wink.”
He said Raila also “ran the biggest political laboratory in Kenya” and created many “test-tube politicians.”
However, Ahmednassir argued that Raila’s political genius, networks, resources and charisma were personal and non-transferable, insisting that ODM cannot survive without him.
“Raila cannot be cloned. His political infrastructure can’t be inherited either. Not by his brother [and] not by his widow. Not by his daughters. Only self-made politicians thrive in Kenya’s politics,” he said.
‘Fool’s errand’
He warned that endless nostalgia, rallies invoking Raila’s “last wishes,” and attempts to manufacture continuity from his legacy were “a fool’s errand,” arguing that political parties built around towering founders rarely survive their demise.
According to him, while ODM’s collapse is inevitable, its decline can — and must — be managed.
“It is very childish for any politician worth his salt to think that ODM will survive his demise. ODM’s demise can, however, be managed,” he said, singling out Oburu Odinga as ill-equipped to fill the vacuum left by his younger brother.
“Dr Oburu shares only a surname with Raila. Nothing else.”
He was equally dismissive of other senior ODM figures, saying Siaya Governor James Orengo has “wilted with unfulfilled political ambitions,” while Nairobi politician Babu Owino, though promising, is “not ready yet.”
Ahmednassir argued that ODM lacks a credible Luo heir to Raila’s political throne.
‘Obliterated’ in Nairobi
Beyond Luo Nyanza, he portrayed ODM leaders as “political midgets” driven by narrow ambitions of re-election or access to state power.
Looking ahead to the 2027 General Election, Ahmednassir predicted that ODM would be “obliterated” in Nairobi, where he foresees a gladiatorial contest between former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Babu Owino, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka playing a watchful role.
For ODM to survive in the capital, he said, it would have to “surrender to Babu Owino on his terms.”
He also forecast a fragmented future for ODM at the Coast, saying Kilifi would fall under National Assembly Speaker Amason Kingi, Kwale under Cabinet Secretary Salim Mvurya and Governor Fatuma Achani, and Mombasa under Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho as “first among equals.”
Drawing a dramatic historical analogy, Ahmednassir likened ODM’s future strategy to “Napoleon’s or Hitler’s infamous retreat from Moscow,” urging the party to evacuate Nairobi, the Coast and Northern Kenya and concentrate solely on Luo Nyanza.
“Oburu will succeed beyond his wildest dreams if he wins everything in Luo Nyanza,” he said. “Any seat outside Luo Nyanza is a bonus to be kissed and adored.”
Tough negotiations
The remarks stand in sharp contrast to Oburu Odinga’s recent statements, in which he vowed to lead “very tough negotiations” with President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), insisting that ODM remains the country’s biggest party and “cannot be given peanuts.”
Speaking at a delegates’ meeting in Busia County, Oburu said ODM’s grassroots strength and national reach give it leverage ahead of the 2027 elections, and defended the party’s participation in the broad-based government as a move taken in the national interest.
“Once a party is built from the grassroots to the polling station, it cannot collapse simply because the founder has moved on,” Oburu said.
But Ahmednassir dismissed such assertions as denial, arguing that without Raila, ODM lacks the leadership, cohesion and national appeal needed to remain competitive.
“ODM has no Raila to run a national party,” he said. “Oburu should focus on protecting Luo Nyanza and accept the reality that Raila’s ODM is dead.”
