Mammoth Crowds, political affiliations, and ethnic nationalism aside you, look at what is unfolding before us and there is no doubt that Raila Odinga and Martha Karua have to save Kenya. One thing that is clear is the fact that no one is bad for the country. No. But leadership of a nation is not cut out for some of these luminaries in Kenya Kwanza. We have two very contrasting political formations, and we need to rise beyond anything else and focus on what electing either portends for our country. On the one hand is a robust nationalistic formation with a track record of reforms and a demonstrable understanding of the challenges facing the majority poor and the inherent opportunities that can address these challenges. On the other hand, is a team that has demonstrated that beyond the catchphrases they use in public rallies they have very little to offer.
Martha Karua and Rigathi Gachagua have come in and the last two weeks have been electric. But if Rigathi Gachagua is the best that Kenya Kwanza has in their ranks to deputise William Ruto his recent public sentiments need to be put in context because every other political formation puts its best foot forward and essentially look for votes to win and nothing else. Votes win elections and the more a leader amasses the voters the better for a political formation. However, with all the stories that are creeping into the public domain, and how Rigathi Gachagua has addressed himself in the public domain, one wonders whether the deputy president wants to win the elections or win political clout. From where I sit, Kenya Kwanza -especially if the deputy president indeed unilaterally decided that Hon Rigathi it is – has no intention of winning the presidency or has since realised that they cannot win. Maybe it is just the doyen at the top as they call him, who has since figured out that he lost it a while back as Raila Odinga and Martha Karua thawed the ice and slid with the mountain.
Winning an election is about selling practical solutions to the common mwanaichi problems. As it is now, Kenya Kwanza is flip flopping on almost everything: from the issue of the port of Mombasa to the Jubilee Government track record to anything that you expect a serious campaign to address itself to effectively. One only needs to replay what some of these leaders said in the last one or two years at most to understand them and their true colours. The very things they supported a few months ago are the ones they are against now and it is very embarrassing that we have in the contest a formation that practically stands for nothing and rides on selling false hope. The fact that they have a shot at winning is scary.
Nevertheless, my argument is that the choice of Rigathi Gachagua is in keeping with the hustler narrative. The objective is not to win but mobilise as much as possible in the Mount Kenya region; give the deputy president grassroot clout and numbers in parliament, county assemblies and a good number of governors to be able to control the CoG. With these numbers and the clout, the deputy president knows that he will have the advantage of seizing the popular mandate of the people as an opposition leader, especially in central Kenya where as the defacto leader who will oversight the government he will cement his place as the leader of the mountain. Picture this, Martha as a Deputy President will be part of a leadership that the masses will expect a lot from. Therefore, with control of the opposition and a good number of Mount Kenya counties, the Kenya Kwanza team will endevour to frustrate the efforts of the government like they have done in the last five years, and by doing so gain favour with the masses in the build up to 2027. This means that the DP’s choice of Rigathi is strategic and not necessarily a choice to win the elections in 2022. I mean, you win an election with such a ticket and then deliver how? By knocking the big economic players out? Giving folks in Mount Kenya rice and beef or recruiting every young man in Mount Kenya to the military? What makes sense is sacrificing the 2022 elections by opting for a grassroot mobiliser with the knack to mobilise and win guys at all costs, make the mountain feel like you are one of them but essentially leverage on the prowess of Rigathi and his dollars to create a solid base. This is the base that will then give the Deputy President the opportunity to get a running who will win votes beyond Mt Kenya in 2027. A candidate with the national character and intellectual enterprise to run a nation. With Rigathi Gachagua, the Deputy President has essentially lost the 2022 general elections but will certainly be the ultimate frontrunner in 2027. Raila Odinga and Martha Karua bolstered by the return of Kalonzo Musyoka now present the inevitability of an Azimio win and Raila Odinga presidency. They have to win big to save us from a re-run. Interestingly Kenyans are luck because the odds are on them to deliver big once in government because Kenya Kwanza and the powerhouse that William Ruto will capitalize on any sense of disillusionment among Kenyans, to build an insurmountable juggernaut in the run up to 2027.
The author is a PhD Candidate in Media Studies and Political communication.
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