CARDIFF, Wales, November 23 – Welsh rugby is in the doldrums and there is no respite as South Africa’s revered rugby juggernaut rolls into Cardiff.
Last weekend’s 52-20 hammering by Australia represented a record 11th consecutive international loss for Wales.
Even the most patriotic Welsh fan will expect that sequence to extend to 12 on Saturday when they tackle the double world champions.
Head coach Warren Gatland is under intense pressure, and people are wondering if Saturday’s Principality Stadium encounter will turn out to be his last Test match in charge of Wales.
The New Zealander has expressed his desire to continue, but results are stacked against him with Wales having not won a Test since the 2023 World Cup.
It is conceivable Gatland, whose second stint as Wales head coach is in stark contrast to a trophy-laden first term from 2008 to 2019, could continue into the Six Nations later this season, yet the decision is in the balance.
Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus defended his old sparring partner Gatland this week and urged people to show the Wales boss the respect he deserves.
There will be no sentiment shown, though, as South Africa aim for an 11th win in 13 games in 2024 when they close out their year in Cardiff.
Calendar crisis
Defeat this weekend would condemn Wales to a whole calendar year without tasting Test match success, which has not happened since 1937, when the international side only lost three games.
In terms of results, 2024 will be remembered as the worst in Wales’ 143-year international rugby union history.
It began with a madcap 27-26 home defeat against Scotland – the Scots’ first win in Cardiff since 2002 – and they did not recover.
A narrow away loss to England followed, before convincing defeats against Ireland and France, while a home defeat against Italy meant Wales lost every Six Nations game and propped up the table for the first time in 21 years.
The summer brought further reversals against South Africa and Australia (twice), then Fiji and the Wallabies triumphed during this Autumn Nations Series, leaving the Springboks in position to complete an annus horribilis for Welsh rugby fans.
Team news
Wales have made four changes from the side crushed by Australia with starts for wing Rio Dyer, fly-half Sam Costelow, lock Christ Tshiunza and number eight Taine Plumtree.
One positional change has seen wing Blair Murray moving to full-back instead of Cameron Winnett.
Dyer wears the number 11 shirt worn by Murray in the last two games, with Costelow replacing Gareth Anscombe, Tshiunza taking over from an injured Adam Beard and Plumtree replacing Aaron Wainwright.
On the replacements’ bench, there is a role for uncapped Gloucester forward Freddie Thomas, and his club colleague Josh Hathaway is also included.
South Africa’s six changes from the team that beat England include starts for the Hendrikse brothers Jaden and Jordan as half-backs.
The other four switches are up front, with hooker Johan Grobbelaar, prop Thomas du Toit, lock Franco Mostert, and flanker Elrigh Louw all featuring.
Prop Ox Nche was initially selected but was withdrawn with Wilco Louw staying at tight-head prop, while du Toit lines up at loose-head.
Jean Kleyn was also another late withdrawal with Eben Etzebeth starting again.
A powerful bench includes six forwards, with Malcolm Marx, RG Snyman and Vincent Koch among them, in addition to Wales-qualified uncapped flanker Cameron Hanekom.
Etzebeth and lock partner Franco Mostert have played 207 internationals between them, two more Tests than the whole starting Wales side on Saturday.
The gulf in experience between the two teams is also highlighted by the Wales match-day 23 having a total of 334 caps, only nine fewer than the South Africa replacements.
Wales’ seven-man starting backline have only played 61 internationals between them.
The Springboks’ 23 for the game can boast 963 Tests between them, with 638 in the starting side. There are 16 World Cup winners in the South Africa squad.
Line-ups and officials
Wales: Murray; Rogers, Llewellyn, B Thomas, Dyer; Costelow, Bevan; G Thomas, Lake (capt), Griffin, Rowlands, Tshiunza, Botham, Morgan, Plumtree.
Replacements: Elias, Smith, Assiratti, F Thomas, Reffell, R Williams, James, Hathaway.
South Africa: Fassi; Kolbe, Kriel, de Allende, Arendse; Jordan Hendrikse, Jaden Hendrikse; T du Toit, J Grobbelaar, W Louw, Etzebeth, Mostert, Kolisi (capt), Louw, Wiese.
Replacements: Marx, Steenekamp, Koch, van Staden, Snyman, Hanekom, Reinach, Pollard.
Referee: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant Referees: Christophe Ridley (England), Damian Schneider (Argentina)
Television Match Official (TMO): Andrew Jackson (England).
