Permanent loss
While the SNAP dispute highlights the human and political stakes, the shutdown is also exacting a measurable toll on the US economy.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office warned on Oct 29 that the US economy is poised to suffer significant damage from the ongoing government shutdown. The agency estimated a permanent loss of $7 billion in economic output if the shutdown ends soon. If it extends six weeks, through to Nov 12, losses could reach $11 billion. An eight-week shutdown until Nov 26 would bring the total to about $14 billion.
The shutdown’s economic impact is compounded by interruptions to federal operations. A shutdown disrupts federal administrative services by furloughing large numbers of employees and halting nonessential operations.
Among the services affected are the processing of new Social Security card applications, certain student loan functions, Internal Revenue Service forms, and Freedom of Information Act requests.
The travel industry is also feeling the strain. Sixty percent of Americans said they would cancel or avoid trips in the event of a shutdown — a decision that might be prudent, given that travel has become increasingly difficult — according to the US Travel Association. National parks are facing partial closures and limited access, while airports are reporting mounting delays caused by staffing shortages.
At Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia, average delays have reached 90 minutes. Orlando International Airport reported average delays of two-and-a-half hours. The National Air Traffic Controllers Association, a labor union and aviation safety organization, said many of its members have taken second jobs to support their families during the shutdown.
Federal employees who have continued working during the shutdown will eventually receive back pay once the government reopens. But the law offers no such protection for government contractors.
According to the US Chamber of Commerce, roughly 65,500 businesses hold contracts with the federal government — providing everything from high-tech equipment to office supplies and landscaping services. Those firms are collectively losing an estimated $3 billion each week. With the shutdown now stretching beyond four weeks, total losses have climbed to about $12 billion.
