NAIROBI, Kenya Mar 12 – Former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria has dismissed fears of a sharp rise in fuel prices in the upcoming review, saying current pricing structures make an immediate spike unlikely despite tensions linked to the Iran–Israel–US conflict.
In a statement, Kuria said Kenya’s fuel pricing system is based on the M–1 formula, meaning prices for March are determined by fuel shipments made in February—before the latest geopolitical developments affecting global oil markets.
“There is no way on earth there will be a major spike in the price of fuel in this week’s review,” Kuria said.
According to Kuria, the M-Minus One pricing mechanism means any global shocks affecting oil prices would take time before impacting Kenya’s pump prices.
He explained that March prices reflect shipments ordered in February, before the escalation of tensions involving Iran.
However, he noted that minor variations could still occur due to logistical changes or higher shipping insurance costs.
Kuria also pointed to Kenya’s government-to-government (G-to-G) fuel supply arrangement, saying it reduces the risk of artificial price manipulation or supply disruptions.
Under the arrangement, Kenya sources fuel directly from national oil producers including Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Saudi Aramco.
He contrasted this with some neighbouring countries that rely on international commodity traders such as Vitol, which he suggested may expose them to greater market volatility.
Kuria cautioned that any price impact linked to the Iran crisis could take several weeks before reaching Kenyan markets.
“If one wants to spread despondency to our motorists let them wait for some four more weeks for the Iran crisis impact to land in Mombasa,” he said.
He assured motorists that no immediate crisis in fuel pricing is expected in the current review cycle.
