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IPSOS survey shows Uhuru will beat Raila in election

The poll with a sample size of 4,308 and a margin of error of 1.5 however indicates that the number of undecided voters declined by a percentage from six percent reported last week to five per cent/PSCU

NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug 1 – President Uhuru Kenyatta has a steady lead over his closest competitor, Raila Odinga, according to a survey released by Ipsos Tuesday evening.

President Kenyatta now has a 47 per cent rating among registered voters ahead of Odinga who scored 44 per cent in the study conducted between July 22 and 30, Ipsos Research Analyst Tom Wolf pointed out while releasing findings of the study.

The poll with a sample size of 4,308 and a margin of error of 1.5, however, indicates that the number of undecided voters declined by a percentage point, from six per cent reported last week to five per cent.

“Three per cent wouldn’t answer and one per cent said they wouldn’t vote. The undecided voters hold the ballots; we don’t know what the turnout would be but if they all went to one side or the other, that candidate will easily in terms of crossing the 50 per cent plus one vote threshold,” Wolf remarked.

“We have seen that Raila has gained one per cent and I can probably conclude that within the undecided voters who changed their minds, Raila probably gained more that Uhuru did,” he observed.

When asked about their knowledge of presidential candidates, 98 per cent of respondents acknowledged knowing the candidacy of Kenyatta and Odinga, with Abduba Dida following at 35 per cent.

The respondents sampled randomly using a multistage stratified methodology placed the knowledgeability of the Joe Nyagah at 17 per cent, Cyrus Jirongo and Ekuru Aukot at 14 per cent, Michael Wainaina (11 per cent), and Japheth Kaluyu (5 per cent).

The Jubilee Party also outsmarts all the National Super Alliance-allied parties put together, the ruling party commanding a 45 per cent rating compared to NASA’s five affiliated parties which cumulatively have a 41 per cent rating among voters according to the poll.

The poll with a 95 per cent degree of confidence indicates that the longest ruling party – Kenya African National Union (KANU) – has a rating of one percent, six of the respondents indicating that they were undecided while four per cent pledged allegiance to none of the political parties in the country.

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Eighty-one per cent of respondents said they there had been no election-related violence in their areas of residence.

Narrowed down to party supporters, eighty-six per cent of Jubilee stalwarts agreed that indeed there had been no occurrence of election-related chaos with the seventy-five per cent of the NASA counterparts agreeing.

Twenty-eight, 15 and 5 per cent of respondents identified robbers, jobless youths and political rivals as the main threat to their individual security.

On the direction the country is headed, thirty-eight per cent of respondents said the nation was on the right path, while fifty per cent disagreed.

NASA supporters compose the majority of Kenyans who feel the nations has lost a bearing with a voluminous 82 per cent polling to that effect compared to twenty per cent of Jubilee followers.

On average, twenty-eight per cent of Kenyans feel their general economic condition had improved since 2013, 23 per cent saying it remained the same while 50 per cent indicated their condition had worsened.

Again, the figure of those who feel their economic conditions had worsened is higher among NASA supporters (66 per cent) with only 29 per cent of Jubilee supporters expressing a similar opinion.

According to the poll, 45 per cent of Jubilee supporters are convinced their economic condition had improved since President Kenyatta assumed power, 25 per cent indicating things remained the same. Only twelve per cent of NASA supporters felt their economic condition had improved.

Surprisingly, the military was the highest rated by respondents during the survey despite recent criticism by Odinga, 49 per cent of respondents saying they had “a lot of confidence on the military.”

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The electoral agency follows the military closely at 48 per cent, the Chief Justice and international election observers both at 38 per cent, the National Police Service at 36 per cent, the Judiciary at 34 per cent, the Attorney General at 33 per cent, and domestic election observers at 30 per cent.


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