NAIROBI, Kenya Feb 27 – Fresh by-election results and growing internal divisions have raised questions about the political future of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), with Thursday’s contests showing the party struggling to remain competitive even in areas it once dominated.
In the November 2025 by-elections, ODM failed to win a single seat in key races where it had previously held influence.
In Kariobangi North, David Wanyoike Warui of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) won the MCA seat with 2,282 votes, while the ODM candidate, Michael Ouma Majua, finished third with 1,351 votes.
The seat fell vacant following the death of former MCA Joel Munuve.
In Narok Township, another seat previously held by ODM slipped away after Douglas Twala Masikonde of DCP won with 6,007 votes, beating UDA’s candidate.
The ward had been considered an ODM stronghold before the death of MCA Lucas Kudate, who had been elected on an ODM ticket.
The trend continued in the February 26, 2026 by-elections, where ODM’s presence was either weak or absent.
In the Isiolo South parliamentary race, ODM did not field a candidate as United Democratic Alliance (UDA)’s Mohamed Tubi won decisively with 7,352 votes against Jubilee’s 634.
In West Kabras Ward in Kakamega County, the ODM candidate Edward Inzofu Indimuli managed just 30 votes after withdrawing from the race, citing frustration with the party’s county leadership.
UDA’s Elphas Shalakha went on to win the seat with 3,317 votes, while DCP finished second.
“These results show a party that is no longer competitive on the ground,” said a local election official in Kakamega, noting that ODM agents were largely absent during tallying.
The losses come as ODM faces open internal divisions at the top.
Party leader Oburu Oginga is rooting for President William Ruto’s re-election a move that has exposed sharp splits within the party.
Senior figures aligned to Oburu have openly hinted at backing President Ruto for a second term, while critics of the plan including ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo have warned that such a deal could further weaken the party.
ODM’s participation in the current broad-based government has also blurred its role as an opposition force.
In the November 2025 by-elections, parties aligned to the broad-based arrangement, including ODM and UDA, won 16 out of 24 seats.
However, most of those wins went to UDA and smaller allied parties, not ODM candidates.
Historically, ODM was one of the country’s most dominant parties, winning 99 parliamentary seats in 2007.
It held 73 MPs after the 2017 election and increased that number to 86 in 2022.
But recent by-election results suggest that parliamentary strength has not translated into grassroots support.
The combination of repeated by-election losses, weak candidate performance, and internal power struggles according to observers has left ODM struggling to define its identity ahead of the 2027 general election.
