Wathika likely to recapture Makadara: Poll

September 17, 2010 12:00 am

, NAIROBI, Kenya, Sep 17 – A poll by Strategic Insight now indicates that Dick Wathika of PNU is the most preferred political candidate for the Makadara by-election.

According to the poll, 34.1 percent of the 2,500 respondents were in support of Mr Wathika while 30.4 percent preferred ODM’s Reuben Ndolo.

Mike Mbuvi of Narc-Kenya comes in third with 20.9 percent while Joshua Kitivi of the Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya (ODM-K) and Lindy Wafula of Nuru party had 10.3 percent and 4.3 percent respectively.

“Most respondents attributed Mr Wathika’s narrow lead to his better development record compared to Mr Ndolo who seems to have lost support from a section of Luhya and Luo voters for poor development record as the area MP,” said Strategic Insight.

The survey further indicated that both Mr Ndolo and Mr Mbuvi could move up their points if they efficiently mobilised their campaigns’ committees.

It also showed that despite Makadara’s urban character, ethnic affiliation was still a determinant in how people intended to vote.

“16 percent of the respondents will base their decision on ethnicity. Consequently the entry of both Mbuvi and Kitivi in the Makadara race has split the PNU coalition, denying Mr Wathika a resounding victory,” said Strategic Insight.

PNU also emerged as the most popular party with 34 percent, followed by ODM with 28.8 percent: “Narc-Kenya is third with 19.4 percent and ODM-K comes in fourth with 13.3 percent.”

The study which had 52 percent of the respondents being male also gauged the general mood of the respondents, the popularity of the aspirants and the competing parties.

“Most of the participants were below the age of 39. We also looked at the factors guiding voters’ choice and the qualities that voters want in their candidates,” the research company said.

The survey also revealed that the by-election is a battle for political supremacy in the Nairobi County between PNU and ODM which won five out of eight seats in the 2007 elections. If ODM fails to get the Makadara and Starehe seats, it will lose its stronghold in Nairobi.

Starehe and Juja constituencies are also scheduled to have their by-elections on September 20. In Starehe, the main contestants are ODM’s Margaret Wanjiru and PNU’s Maina Kamanda.

Other candidates that will vie for the Makadara seat are Stella Mbai of the Forum for Restoration of Democracy for the People, Abok Odera of the Social Democratic Party of Kenya, Consolata Kivuti of the United Democratic Movement and Samuel Obiero of the New Democrats.



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