NAIROBI, Kenya Dec 23 – The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is grappling with internal divisions and an uncertain political future following the death of its long-serving leader, Raila Odinga, according to a new national survey by TIFA Research.
Findings released on Tuesday by TIFA Research depict a party at a strategic crossroads, struggling to define its identity in the post-Raila era amid its uneasy cooperation with President William Ruto’s Broad-Based Government.
The poll suggests that while ODM remains single most popular party, its internal cohesion has weakened, exposing sharp disagreements between its leadership and grassroots supporters over the party’s direction ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Popularity Grows, Unity Shrinks
According to the survey, ODM’s national popularity has risen to 20 per cent, overtaking President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), which stands at 16 per cent.
Indication show, that the surge may be driven largely by post-Raila sympathy rather than genuine endorsement of the party’s current political posture.
Despite ODM leaders’ engagement with the Kenya Kwanza administration, expectations among the public and within the party remain divided. Half of all respondents expect ODM to return to the opposition by 2027, while 38 per cent believe it will remain part of the Broad Based Government.
Among ODM supporters themselves, the split is equally stark, highlighting the party’s internal dilemma.
Reluctance to Back Ruto
The survey points to strong resistance within ODM’s base to any formal endorsement of President Ruto in 2027. Only 19 per cent of ODM supporters say they would want the party to back Ruto for a second term, even if he were to join the party.
Instead, a plurality of 34 per cent prefer ODM to field its own presidential candidate, while 20 per cent favour supporting another candidate from the broader Azimio-opposition formation.
These findings highlight a widening gap between ODM’s top leadership, which has embraced cooperation with the government, and grassroots supporters who remain wary of aligning too closely with President Ruto.
Leadership Tensions
The poll also reveals that the party’s divisions extend to its highest decision-making levels and into the Odinga family itself.
TIFA notes emerging disquiet following the informal elevation of Raila Odinga’s elder brother, Oburu Odinga, as the party’s political anchor.
Oburu has publicly signalled support for continued engagement with the Broad Based Government , a position that has drawn criticism from within the party. Raila’s daughter, Winnie Odinga, has suggested a different political path, fuelling perceptions of internal discord.
“Lesser ODM leaders have challenged Oburu’s pronouncement, claiming that only the party’s National Delegates’ Conference can make such a decision,” the TIFA report stated.
Diminishing Kingpin Effect
Complicating ODM’s calculations is a notable decline in the traditional ethnic and personality-based loyalty that long underpinned the party’s strength.
The survey shows that the proportion of Luo respondents who say they look to a specific community leader for political direction has fallen sharply from 63 per cent to 47 per cent since Raila’s death.
“In Raila’s ‘absence,’ both ODM leaders and followers will be freer to ‘make up their own minds’ about what party, coalition, or presidential candidate to support,” the poll stated.
