NAIROBI, Kenya, May 14 — President William Ruto’s political dominance appears to be weakening ahead of the 2027 General Election, but a deeply fragmented opposition could still hand him a second term, according to a new national survey by TIFA Research.
The poll shows Ruto remains the single most preferred presidential candidate at 24 per cent, but the figure underscores his vulnerability, with three-quarters of Kenyans currently backing other candidates or remaining undecided.
The opposition vote remains scattered among several contenders, including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 19 per cent, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i at 14 per cent, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna at 10 per cent and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua at 9 per cent.
TIFA notes that while Ruto’s support base is relatively modest, the absence of a dominant opposition challenger could ultimately work in his favour.
“As this survey Release has shown, even if the current incumbent’s relatively low popularity suggests his electoral vulnerability, the absence of a clear front-runner among Opposition ranks may make such apparent vulnerability irrelevant,” the pollster said on Thursday.
The survey notes the opposition is yet to present a unifying presidential ticket capable of consolidating anti-Ruto support.
Among respondents supporting opposition candidates, the Kalonzo-Musyoka/Fred Matiang’i pairing emerged as the most preferred alliance at 31 per cent, narrowly ahead of a Kalonzo-Edwin Sifuna ticket at 28 per cent.
The poll further showed Kenyans remain divided over who among opposition figures would have the best chance of defeating Ruto, with Matiang’i, Kalonzo and Gachagua polling almost equally at 18 per cent, 18 per cent and 17 per cent respectively.
The findings come amid jostling within the so-called Broad-Based Government coalition arrangement between Ruto and ODM, amid push and pull over zoning and a 2027 coalition framework following the death of Raila Odinga.
According to the poll, support for the Broad-Based Government has dropped from 44 per cent in November 2025, a month following Odinga’s death, to 30 per cent currently, while opposition to the arrangement has risen to 56 per cent nationally.
The survey also points to unrest within ODM, where 73 per cent of party supporters back the “Linda Mwananchi” faction associated with Siaya Governor James Orengo and Sifuna alongside ODM leaders critical of continued cooperation with Ruto’s administration.
TIFA additionally found declining loyalty to Kenya’s traditional political giants, with ODM support dropping from 32 per cent in August 2022 to 18 per cent in May, while UDA has fallen from 38 per cent to 17 per cent over the same period.
Meanwhile, Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) has recorded rapid growth, climbing from 6 per cent in November 2025 to 16 per cent in May 2026.
Still, the poll suggests many Kenyans remain unconvinced by the broader political class, with nearly half saying no political party genuinely represents ordinary citizens.
The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026 through face-to-face interviews with 2,013 respondents across all 47 counties and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 per cent.
