NAIROBI, Kenya, Sep 27 – The Orange Democratic Movement’s (ODM) hold on Gusii politics is under threat after all six MPs from the region boycotted the party’s 20th anniversary celebrations, a coordinated snub that has intensified speculation of imminent defections ahead of the 2027 elections.
The absence of Senator Richard Onyonka and MPs Anthony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South), Patrick Osero (Borabu), Daniel Manduku (Nyaribari Masaba), Clive Gisairo (Kitutu Masaba), and Obadiah Barongo (Bobasi) was widely read as a sign of rebellion within the party, with several leaders openly hinting at plans to exit ODM.
Kitutu Chache South MP Anthony Kibagendi declared that the boycott was deliberate and a reflection of ODM’s dwindling influence in Kisii.
“We have a candidate who is associated with another candidate who is unpopular. We didn’t want to show solidarity to a party that soon we are exiting and create a perception in the community that we are supporting this candidate,” Kibagendi said, bluntly signalling a looming walkout.
The legislators cited ODM leader Raila Odinga’s shifting posture toward President William Ruto as a key source of discontent, saying it has left local supporters feeling betrayed.
They argued that Odinga’s apparent willingness to cooperate with Ruto undermines ODM’s identity as the country’s main opposition party.
‘Politically costly’
Borabu MP Obadiah Barongo was equally forthright, saying remaining tied to ODM was politically costly.
“ODM is unpopular in Kisii right now and the danger of associating with it will make the mwananchi think you’re supporting unpopular decisions,” he said, adding that exclusion from the anniversary event only confirmed the widening rift.
The MPs also complained about ODM’s failure to reward the region with senior positions in parliament or the executive.
Kibagendi said expectations of the minority whip slot and a cabinet appointment for party treasurer Timothy Bosire were dashed, weakening confidence in the party.
“The party has lost its glory in Kisii and it all started with changes made in parliamentary leadership. Those are the major reasons for the demise of ODM in the region,” he said.
The fallout comes against the backdrop of recent opinion polls showing ODM’s support slipping outside its Luo Nyanza base.
A TIFA survey released in August put ODM’s popularity at 28 per cent nationally, a steep decline from the 40 per cent-plus levels it enjoyed in the run-up to the 2022 elections.
Kisii, where Odinga secured about 65 per cent of the presidential vote in 2022 is among regions showing softening support.
The Gusii boycott could mark the beginning of a realignment that may see ODM lose some of its MPs to rival formations.
With the 2027 elections just two years away, such defections could not only dent Odinga’s national numbers but also erode his claim to lead a broad-based opposition movement.
For ODM, the boycott is more than a protest — it is a warning that its once-secure foothold in Gusii is slipping fast, with defections looming large on the horizon.
