BEIJING, China, Oct 8 — Global renewable power capacity is on track to double by 2030, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, with nearly 60 percent of the growth projected to come from China, whose record-setting expansion in clean technologies contrasts with slowing progress in the United States and other major economies.
Renewables 2025, the IEA’s latest forecast, predicts a 4,600 gigawatt increase in global renewable power capacity by 2030, equivalent to the combined power generation of China, the European Union and Japan.
“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV — but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
Solar photovoltaics are on course to account for some 80 percent of the increase in the world’s renewable capacity over the next five years, Birol said, according to an IEA press release.
Policy shift
The IEA report noted that China’s policy change — a shift from long-term fixed tariffs to auctions — led to an unprecedented solar PV and wind boom in the first half of 2025, but the pace of expansion in the second half remains uncertain.
The goal of China’s new policy is to achieve market-driven growth for renewables and facilitate their grid integration, the report said.
Largely driven by a solar PV and wind boom, China’s renewable capacity additions are forecast to reach nearly 465 GW in 2025, the highest ever for any country, with an accelerated case projecting up to 509 GW if market and policy conditions align, according to the IEA report.
Compared with last year, the forecast for the US was revised down by almost 50 percent, reflecting several policy changes, including the early phase-out of federal tax incentives, new import restrictions, the suspension of new offshore wind leasing, and restricting the permitting of onshore wind and solar PV projects on federal land.
In the European Union, annual capacity additions are expected to decline 1 percent in 2025 compared with 2024.
Overall, the outlook for global renewable capacity growth was revised downward slightly — by 5 percent — compared with last year, mainly due to policy changes in the world’s two largest economies, the IEA said in the report.
“Nonetheless, China continues to account for nearly 60 percent of global renewable capacity growth and is on track to reach its recently announced 2035 wind and solar target five years ahead of schedule, extending its track record of early delivery,” said the report.
Stronger policy support
In emerging economies across Asia, the Middle East and Africa, cost competitiveness and stronger policy support are spurring faster growth of renewables, with many governments introducing new auction programs and raising their targets, according to the report.
A new report by global energy policy think tank Ember on Monday highlights the value of China’s clean technology exports and aligns with the IEA’s observations of emerging economies.
China’s clean technology exports hit a record high of $20 billion in August, driven by strong growth in electric vehicles and batteries, with half of the exports coming from emerging markets, according to Ember data.
The record value of cleantech exports has come despite sharply falling technology prices, highlighting the rapid growth in demand for electrotechnology.
For instance, solar panel prices have fallen by more than 80 percent in the last decade. As the price of clean technologies continues to fall, demand is picking up in new markets.
Over half of China’s EV exports this year originated outside the OECD, with ASEAN exports rising 75 percent and African exports almost tripling in the January-August period, according to Ember.
“Demand for clean technologies continues to skyrocket as more and more countries seek their benefits, from low-cost power to cheaper vehicles,” said Euan Graham, an electricity and data analyst with Ember.
“China’s electrotech is becoming the basis of the new energy system, with continued cost reductions driving faster growth than ever, especially in emerging economies,” Graham said.
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