NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 18 – Stanbic Bank estimates Kenya GDP to grow by 5.6percent in 2018 as the economy recovers from the 2017 prolonged electioneering period.
This will be driven by public spending in infrastructure, recovery of the agricultural sector and tourism numbers are also expected to go up due to largely peaceful elections.
Stanbic economist Jibran Qureishi says headline inflation to average 4.4 percent adding that he expects the interest rate capping to be reviewed in the first half of the year.
Oil prices are expected to go up and could hot between $60 and $65 per barrel, which will, in turn, increase food prices.
“Despite high Oil prices inflation is expected to decline between January and July but go up from July to December,” says Qureishi.
“Political risk is now behind us and agriculture is expected to do better.”
Qureishi has also raised concern about the rising levels of debt which he says GDP growth needs to grow in tandem with the increase in productivity.
“Public spending shouldn’t be the only thing that drives the economy forward,” says Qureishi.