US inflation rises ahead of key interest rate decision

SEPT 12 – US inflation rose in August at the fastest pace since the beginning of the year ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting where it will decide whether to cut or hold interest rates.

Consumer prices increased 2.9% in the year to August, up from 2.7% the previous month, according to the latest figures from the US Labor Department as the cost of cars, household furnishings and grocery staples like tomatoes and beef all rose.

The US central bank has kept interest rates unchanged since last year as policymakers continued to monitor the effect of President Donald Trump’s import tariffs on consumer prices.

Trump and some of his allies have attacked the Fed for not cutting rates at the same pace as other central banks in, for example, the UK and Europe.

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates next week by a quarter of a percentage point.

The new data is unlikely to derail those forecasts but the uptick in inflation is poised to keep policymakers cautious as they weigh rate cuts in the months ahead.

“President Donald Trump’s inflationary policies – tariffs and restrictive immigration measures – are gradually showing up in the hard data and continue to erode consumers’ purchasing power,” said Atakan Bakiskan, US economist at banking group Berenberg.

Trump has dismissed concerns that his policies will drive up prices or weigh on the economy.

Since Trump latest tariffs took effect last month, most goods entering the US face taxes of between 10% and 50%, depending on their origin.

The price of tariff-sensitive products – such as clothing and household goods – inched up last month in a sign that more businesses might be passing on costs to consumers.

Economists noted that the uptick in food prices, which tend to be volatile, might also be driven in part by Trump administration policies, including tariffs and mass deportations.

Inflation data showed that tomato prices rose by 4.5% in August.

About 70% of tomatoes consumed in the US are imported from Mexico, according to the Florida Tomato Exchange.

In July, the US imposed a 17% tariff on most tomatoes bought in from its southern neighbour.

As well as inflation, the Fed has become increasingly focused on job market weakness.

Last week, the Labor Department reported that employers added just 22,000 jobs in August, fewer than expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.2% to 4.3%.

More recently, it said the US economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than initial estimates had suggested in the year to March.

And on Thursday, the Labor Department reported a jump in weekly unemployment filings to 263,000 – the highest level in nearly four years.

An underlying measure of inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, held steady at 3.1% year-over-year in August.

“Right now, inflation is a key subplot, but the labor market is still the main story,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

“That translates into a rate cut next week – and, likely, more to come.”

As well as criticising the Fed for not cutting interest rates as quickly as he would like, Trump has also attacked the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which gathers data on jobs an inflation.

Last month, he fired the head of the BLS saying – without evidence – that she had rigged job numbers to make him look bad.

The Labor Department’s internal watchdog yesterday said it had launched an investigation into BLS data collection, focused on the “challenges” it faces gathering and updating the information.

By BBC