“We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers,” said the paper authored by staff economists at the New York Fed and another economist at Columbia University.
As much as 94 percent of new tariffs in the first eight months of 2025 was absorbed by U.S. importers and consumers, according to the study.
The share of tariffs borne by U.S. importers and consumers stood at 92 percent from September to October and 86 percent in November.
“These findings are consistent with two other studies that report high pass-through of tariffs to U.S. import prices,” said the paper.
U.S. average tariff rate on imported goods increased from 2.6 percent at the beginning of 2025 to 13 percent by the end of 2025, according to the study.
Moreover, the results of the study imply that U.S. import prices for goods subject to the average tariff increased by 11 percent more than those for goods not subject to tariffs.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security collected 287 billion U.S. dollars in customs duties, taxes and fees in 2025, up 192 percent versus the prior year, according to the U.S. Department of Treasury.
In particular, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection collected more than 200 billion dollars in tariffs between Jan. 20 and Dec. 15, 2025, enabled by more than 40 executive orders put in place by the Trump administration.
What has long been known is that U.S. consumers and businesses pay the costs of Trump’s tariffs, noted Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Mansfield Foundation, while he posted a report on the study.
