A new modeling study, published in Nature Cities, predicts that certain types of urban fires will become more frequent in the coming decades.
Researchers estimate that, worldwide, this trend could result in an additional 330,000 fire-related deaths and over a million more injuries between 2020 and 2100. However, if global warming is limited to below 1.5 degrees Celsius, the number of deaths could be reduced by half.
To establish this connection, the international research team analyzed fires and peak monthly air temperatures across more than 2,800 cities in 20 countries, including the United States, China, Australia and Britain, representing over 20 percent of the global population. The findings could be useful for future urban planning and emergency response strategies.
The researchers measured how the frequency of different urban fire incidents — such as building fires, vehicle fires, and outdoor blazes at sites like landfills — changes in response to rising temperatures, which aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global warming on various types of urban fires.
There could be an 11.6 percent increase in vehicle fires and a 22.2 percent increase in outdoor fires by 2100, but a 4.6 percent decrease in building fires, under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, said the authors from the University of Science and Technology of China, the RMIT University in Melbourne, Shanghai Maritime University, Charles Darwin University, among others.
They also estimate that global warming could contribute to approximately 335,000 fire-related deaths and 1.1 million injuries across all cities analyzed between 2020 and 2100.
