JULY 16 – Shares in Donald Trump’s social media company have surged after he survived an assassination attempt on Saturday.
Shares in Trump Media, which runs the Truth Social platform, closed up about 31%. The price had risen as much as 70% in pre-market trading over the weekend before falling back again.
Analysts said the gains reflected bets that the shooting had improved Mr Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential election in November.
A bullet caught the former president’s ear during one of his election rallies, shortly before the gunman was shot dead by a Secret Service sniper.
“I’m supposed to be dead, I’m not supposed to be here,” Mr Trump said in one of his first interviews since the attack.
Billionaire Elon Musk is among those who have formally endorsed Mr Trump since the shooting.
“As the election intensifies, investors are betting that more individuals will tune in to the social media platform to express their views as well as be among the first to view the postings from President Trump and his team,” said Susan Schmidt, head of public equity at State of Wisconsin Investment Board.
However, Wall Street analyst Cary Leahey said this was a trade “about the election more than the business”, noting that Truth Social had been struggling to grow.
“If [Trump’s] chances of being elected go up, is his firm more valuable? Some traders think so.
“I am confident that if Biden dropped out, Truth Social shares would go down,” he added.
Mr Trump founded the Trump Media and Technology Group in 2021 after he lost the 2020 presidential election and was temporarily booted off major social platforms, including Twitter and Facebook, which accused him of inciting violence after the Capitol Hill riots.
Truth Social largely follows the same format as X, formerly Twitter, and has about 2 million active users, although claims vary according to difference sources.
Mr Trump is the majority shareholder.
At the current share price – roughly $40 a share – his holdings are worth roughly $5bn – far more than analysts say is justified by the company’s sales and operations.
The firm’s share price has been notoriously volatile, often tied to events in Mr Trump’s life – and his election odds.
Shares of its predecessor company started rallying in January, after Mr Trump defeated Republican challengers in the primaries.
The price soared further after Trump Media formally debuted on the Nasdaq stock exchange in March.
But shares slumped at the start of his criminal trial in April, in which he was later convicted of fraud charges linked to hush-money that was paid to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels.
The current share price remains below levels seen in March.
“There is no current fundamental business performance of the company that supports this current ‘price’ but buyers are likely political supporters purchasing shares to support the President’s wealth ahead of the election,” said Thomas J Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital.
On Saturday, images of Mr Trump holding up his fist defiantly to show he had survived the assassination attempt elicited roars from his supporting crowd.
Mr Trump later told US media he felt that he had been saved “by luck or by God”.
“The most incredible thing was that I happened to not only turn [my head] but to turn at the exact right time and in just the right amount,” he said, adding that the bullet that grazed his ear could have easily killed him.
One audience member was killed in the attack, while two other people were seriously injured. The gunman has been named as Thomas Matthew Crooks.
The motive of the shooter remains unclear.
