NAIROBI, Kenya July 30 – A new opinion poll released shows that President Uhuru Kenyatta would emerge victorious if elections were to be held today, with 53 per cent, ahead of Raila Odinga’s 42 per cent.
The poll released by the Centre for African Progress (CAP) shows that 5 per cent of the voters are still undecided, according to the organisation’s Operations Manager Abel Oyieyo.
Oyieyo said that 35 percent of Kenyans believe that Kenyatta will deliver on his campaign pledges if elected while 33 percent of those polled believe Odinga will get the job done.
“Kenyatta high ratings as revealed by the respondents are attributed to the Standard Gauge Railway project, the free maternity scheme and the laptop project, though in some places,” he said, adding that “Those in favor of Odinga’s candidacy pointed out the role he played in the construction of the Thika Super Highway.”
The poll which was conducted between 24 and 27 of July sampled 9,995 respondents randomly selected from all the 47 counties.
The survey conducted across all the 47 counties showed that Kenyatta, the Jubilee presidential candidate, would beat his NASA counterpart, Raila Odinga in Rift Valley, Central, Eastern and in the North Eastern while Odinga enjoys support from Nyanza and Western Kenya regions.
Oyieyo said 85 per cent of Kenyans polled gave assurances that they will vote on the August 8, with 10 per cent opting not to vote.
“When you pick the percentages and focus on a voter turnout of 85 percent, Kenyatta will get 7,971,630, Odinga gets 6,289,426 and all the other candidates put together including the undecided they get 844, 183. With these numbers, it will be a one round election,” said Oyieyo.
Political pundits have argued that the voter turnout in the two leaders’ strongholds will determine the next president of Kenya because 48 per cent of Kenyans are associated with the Jubilee party with 42 percent of Kenyans aligning themselves with NASA. 8 percent are seen to be neutral.
On who is best at promoting peaceful elections in Kenya, 51 percent of Kenyans believe that Kenyatta is best placed in promoting peaceful election in the country with 44 percent affirming that Odinga is most suitable in driving the peaceful agenda in the run up to the polls while 5 per cent said they don’t know.
“The numbers are entirely based on their support base with each of the candidate’s supporters believing that their preferred candidate is best suited in promoting peaceful elections in the country,” said Oyieyo.
The survey has also favored candidates who secured nomination tickets in either Jubilee or NASA with 63 percent of Kenyans saying that they will vote for the candidates nominated by their party while 35 percent saying that it will not be a direct win for them and 2 percent of those polled are not sure.
On the perception of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, 56 percent of Kenyans trust that the electoral agency will deliver a free, fair and credible General Elections while 40 percent think otherwise and 4 percent are not sure.
The poll was conducted between the 24 to 27 of July and comprised of 9,995 registered participants who were randomly selected from al the 47 counties.
Data was collected using face to face interviews with a margin of error of 1.29 percent.