NAIROBI, Kenya, May 1 -Prime Minister Raila Odinga would beat his deputy Musalia Mudavadi in a presidential runoff by a thin margin, according to a new poll released on Tuesday.
The IPSOS Synovate survey shows Mudavadi would garner 41 per cent of the votes with Odinga at 43 per cent if elections were held today.
“A further 15 per cent of the respondents interviewed indicated that they were still undecided on who to vote for between Odinga and Mudavadi in a runoff,: said IPSOS Synovate Managing Director Maggy Ireri.
The poll also showed that Odinga will tie with his other deputy Uhuru Kenyatta at 44 per cent if a runoff between the two was held today.
The findings show that Odinga will get more votes from Western province in a run off with Uhuru than he will get in run off with Mudavadi a factor
“In a run off Raila has consistent support in Nyanza, Western and Coast provinces but when he is paired against Mudavadi, his support levels go down in Western; what we are seeing is that people form a certain region support leaders from the region,” Ireri explained.
The poll showed that voters from Western, Coast and Nyanza provinces Province will consistently vote for Odinga against his opponents in the run off as opposed to Central, Eastern and Rift valley votres who will consistently vote for candidates opposing Odinga.
Against Musyoka, Odinga would emerge victorious in a run off with 46 per cent to Musyoka’s 41 per cent while the PM would win with 48 per cent to 41 per cent in a run off against Ruto.
The poll showed that odinga remains the favorite to capture presidency at 34 per cent, followed by his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta at 22 per cent, Vice President Kalonzo at 9 per cent.
Eldoret North MP William Ruto comes in fourth with 8 per cent, while Deputy Prime minister Musalia Mudavadi and Gichugu MP Martha Karua tie in fifth place at 5 per cent.
The PM would also win more votes (51 per cent) in Western province as compared to (18 per cent) that would be won by Mudavadi if the two contested for the top seat.
Ireri said that the uncertainty over who will be the candidate for the G7 alliance is responsible for the consistency in the lead by the PM for the last one year.
“Only nine per cent of the voters indicated that their preference for presidential candidate had changed in the last three months 91 per cent have not changed, the plat form has remained the same despite the talk of alliances. The list of candidates has remained the same apart from the decision by Mudavadi to contest,” she added saying that neither political parties nor candidates had a hand in the poll.
The poll conducted between the 6th and 17th of this month showed that despite Mudavadi’s intention to leave ODM, his combination with Odinga is the most preferable for the presidency and the running mate at 21 per cent followed by that of Uhuru and Ruto which received an approval of 9 per cent.
Forty two per cent o those interviewed (face to face) indicated that they will support the parties they supported in the hotly contested 2007 elections while 30 per cent indicated that they will not support their 2007 parties of choice.
Twenty two per cent of those polled indicated that they do not know which party they will support in the upcoming by elections.
Two thousand respondents aged above 18 were interviewed and the distribution in the sample was based on the distribution of voters in the 2007 voters register.