NAIROBI, Kenya Jan 5 – For nearly two decades, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was held together by one man, Raila Odinga. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Today, barely months after his death, the party he founded is facing the biggest crisis in its history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
What was once Kenya\u2019s strongest opposition movement is now trapped in confusion, infighting and mixed signals that could push it into political irrelevance by the 2027 General Election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ODM was born in 2005 out of defiance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It rose from the famous \u201cNo\u201d vote in the constitutional referendum, when Kenyans rejected a draft constitution seen as protecting excessive presidential powers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The orange symbol became a badge of resistance, reform and people power. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
For years, ODM stood for social justice, devolution and fighting state excesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But in 2026, that orange is fading fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Raila Odinga died on October 15, 2025, while receiving treatment in India. His death removed the glue that held ODM together. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even when the party disagreed internally, Raila had the authority to calm tempers, impose direction and keep the party focused.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That stabilising force is now gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, Raila\u2019s elder brother, took over as party leader in November, becoming only the second person to lead ODM since its formation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
But instead of clarity, his leadership has opened a new fault line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On one hand, Oburu insists ODM will remain inside President William Ruto\u2019s broad-based government until 2027, in line with Raila\u2019s last political pact with Ruto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the other, he declares himself the automatic ODM presidential candidate if the party chooses to go it alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To many supporters, the message is confusing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Is ODM preparing to compete for power or preparing to campaign for Ruto?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The internal cracks are now in full public view. Senior leaders are openly accusing each other of trying to \u201cauction\u201d the party either to President Ruto to secure his re-election, or to former President Uhuru Kenyatta to rebuild a united opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Siaya Governor James Orengo have openly rejected any plan to back Ruto in 2027. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sifuna has warned that supporting Ruto would doom ODM electorally and has vowed to walk away if the party makes that decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe will lose the election with Ruto even if we support him,\u201d Sifuna said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the opposite side are leaders backing the broad-based arrangement, arguing that ODM must honour Raila\u2019s final political direction and prioritise stability over confrontation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The fighting has become so ugly that a group of ODM MPs has now demanded an urgent internal meeting to stop the public feuds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
They warn that the chaos is damaging the party\u2019s image, weakening discipline and opening ODM strongholds to rival parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Perhaps the most dangerous signal for ODM is coming from its own supporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A TIFA Research survey released in December 2025 shows only 19 per cent of ODM supporters want the party to back President Ruto in 2027. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
A larger number want ODM to field its own candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The gap between the party leadership and its grassroots base is widening fast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
ODM built its brand on listening to the people. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Today, many supporters feel the party elite is making deals above their heads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ODM\u2019s critics say the party has lost its identity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It was formed to fight excessive presidential power, yet it now sits inside government. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It once mobilised youth through protest, but now asks them to join the system it used to oppose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even President Ruto has publicly urged ODM to \u201cput its house in order,\u201d a statement that quietly exposes how central ODM has become to his re-election strategy and how risky a divided ODM could be for both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ODM now faces a brutal reality. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the end of 2026, it must decide whether to field its own presidential candidate or back Ruto. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Either choice will come with consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If it backs Ruto, it risks splitting apart and losing credibility as an alternative voice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
If it goes it alone without unity, it risks humiliation at the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The truth is uncomfortable but clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ODM was built around Raila and without him, the party must either reinvent itself into a disciplined, democratic and people-driven movement or fade into history as a once-great force that could not survive its founder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As 2027 approaches, the clock is ticking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
And unless ODM finds clarity fast, that election could mark not just a political loss but the end of the Orange era itself.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
For the first time since 2005, ODM looks like a party without a compass. The orange that once symbolised resistance and hope is starting to rot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13976,"featured_media":789220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,4625,26],"tags":[1981,491,498,35862,1838],"coauthors":[1753],"class_list":["post-789209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kenya","category-national-news","category-top-stories","tag-featured","tag-kenya","tag-odm","tag-odm-survival-2027","tag-raila-odinga"],"yoast_head":"\n