NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug 16 — Was President Uhuru Kenyatta’s endorsement the ‘curse’ that wrecked Raila Odinga’s fifth attempt to scale to presidency?
This has now been the biggest puzzle in the political arena as supporters of the Azimio presidential candidate come to terms with the fact that Odinga has yet again failed, though with a narrow margin, despite having the state machinery on his side.
As Odinga marches yet again into the familiar territory of the opposition after becoming the official opposition leader from 2013 to 2017, and briefly in 2018 before jumping ship to join President Uhuru Kenyatta’s camp, the effect of the state machinery in his political ambition has been the subject of a fierce debate among his supporters.
“The State never misses its target, and if it misses, it’s by DESIGN,” Kipembe Mpuru, the Secretary General of NOPEU Party, a coalition partner of Azimio said on Tuesday following the declaration Odinga archrival, Deputy President William Ruto, as President-Elect on Monday.
If he fails to appeal Ruto’s election at the Supreme Court, Odinga’s supporters will yet again face the losses of their dashed hopes despite the notion that the stars had aligned in his favor.
The 2022 presidential election marked the first quest by Odinga since the launch of his presidential ambitions in 1997 that he has been backed by the state.
Odinga’s close allies had intimated that the 2022 political duel was theirs to win as they had the backing of the state machinery.
In July, Suba South MP John Mbadi had been optimistic saying that with the backing of the state which includes security apparatus, Odinga had one foot inside State House and was waiting to formally take control after the election.
But with the state as one of his political arsenal, Odinga was unable to topple Ruto who is assumed to be one of his ‘political students’, having worked under him in the Orange Movement in 2005, with a margin of over 231,000 votes.
President Kenyatta who is deemed as the Mt Kenya kingpin, a region that enjoys a large basket of votes, failed to marshal his region to back Odinga.
Instead, the Mt Kenya counties which include Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Nakuru collectively gave Ruto nearly three million votes.
Odinga only secured 847,709 votes from Mt Kenya, which was an improvement as compared to previous elections. Critics however maintained President Kenyatta’s hand was not felt as much.
Lawyer Donald Kipkorir pointed the blame at Odinga’s inner circle saying they had failed him.
“What is hurting me and all genuine friends of Raila Odinga is: There was an AZIMIO candidate for every seat of Governor, Senator, MP, Women Rep and MCA & they had agents to watch the voting, protect their votes and sign off their FORMS yet didn’t see the need to do same for Baba,” he said.
He termed Odinga’s circle had people who have been a “brood of vipers and leeches.”
Kenyatta’s handlers in the Mt. Kenya region seem to have terribly failed with an overwhelming majority of those seeking elective positions failing to salvage their political ambitions.
There were also concerns, President Kenyatta’s ten-year in government has been described as an underwhelming tenure, with the struggling with soaring food prices, millions hungry going hungry to to a crippling drought, endemic corruption and disenchantment with the political elite at an all-time high.
A section of the electorate expressed reservations with Odinga’s candidature who was branded as a ‘state project’ with fears that he might extend the country’s stagnation under Kenyatta’s regime.
Although Kenyatta appeared to have concealed his intentions since the March 2018 handshake with Odinga, he later let the cat out of the bag after suggesting he would depart from the expectation that he would support Ruto, his deputy.
“My choice will shock you!” Kenyatta said in November 2018, at the height of a cold war with Ruto.
The sidelining of Ruto in government also appears to have turned out to be a blessing in disguise or the magic wand that made him the de facto opposition candidate who appealed to a section of the electorate keen to upset the status quo.
Having been declared President-Elect, Ruto becomes the first Deputy/Vice President to break the curse of vice presidents failing in their bids to succeed their bosses through elections ever since independence in 1963.
At the same time Ruto registered a first after clinched the presidency at the first stab as compared to others before him who made several attempts before succeeding ion their quest.
But the country was still bracing for a period of uncertainty on Tuesday with the focus shifting the the Supreme Court where any party seeking to challenge Ruto’s will have seven days to file a petition contesting the election.
All eyes were on Odinga, who failed at his fifth stab at the presidency but was yet to make any public comments about the outcome of the August 9 election.