NAIROBI, Kenya, Jul 11 — A new study by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) has reported a three-point gap between the two top contenders for next month’s presidential election placing Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga at 42 per cent ahead of William Ruto (UDA) at 39 per cent.
The poll released on Monday projected the proportion of undecided voters at 10 per cent with Roots Party’s presidential candidate George Wajackoyah, who gained significantly from Odinga’s pie according to the poll, increasing his popularity index to 4 per cent.
TIFA lead researcher Tom Wolf said both Odinga and Ruto had gained support since the last survey conducted in mid-May, which had placed Odinga at 39 per cent and Ruto at 35 per cent.
“Odinga maintains a very narrow lead over Ruto (42 per cent vs. 39 per cent), actually falling within the survey’s margin-of-error (+/-2.7%),” stated Wolf while giving an analysis of the poll that saw 1,533 respondents interviewed between June 25 and 30.
“David Mwaure of the Agano party failed to elicit more than miniscule support in this survey,” he added.
The survey also reported a 10 per cent gender gap among Azimio supporters with 47 per cent of Odinga’s supporters being male voters against 37 identified as women.
TIFA found Ruto’s base to be nearly gender even with 40 per cent on likely voters supporting him being male and 38 per cent identified as female.
“Odinga consistently has more male supporters even after naming Karua as his running mate,” stated Wolf.
The pollster also noted that two thirds of respondents considered the identity of running mate as ‘very important’ to them in terms of their choice for president.
Wolf said 90 per cent of presumed Odinga supporters were satisfied with the choice of Martha Karua as running mate, while only 67 per cent of Ruto supporters were satisfied with the choice of Gachagua.
“This however doesn’t meant that they will not vote for the Deputy President,” Wolf however noted.
In terms of political party support, the survey revealed that UDA is still the most popular party in Kenya at 33 per cent, followed by ODM at 26 per cent.
The ruling Jubilee Party was listed in third place at 4 per cent, Roots Party at 3 per cent, while 11 per cent of the respondents were said to be undecided.
According to the poll, Azimio has more national support at 42 per cent compared to the UDA-led Kenya Kwanza at 35 per cent.
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