Jubilee expands its lead over NASA post-October poll: Ipsos

April 6, 2018 5:40 pm
“Ever since the 2013 election, most Kenyans have been identifying with Jubilee who have been enjoying a small but increasing margin over NASA,” he observed/CFM NEWS

, NAIROBI, Kenya, Apr 6 – The Jubilee Party has expanded its lead over the National Super Alliance (NASA) from nine per cent in October last year to 11 per cent.

According to a new Ipsos study unveiled by Research Analyst Tom Wolf on Friday, 49 per cent of 2,003 respondents sampled in 45 counties between March 4 and 12, said they felt closest to the ruling party compared to 37 per cent who identified themselves with the Opposition alliance.

“Ever since the 2013 election, most Kenyans have been identifying with Jubilee who have been enjoying a small but increasing margin over NASA,” he observed.

The popularity of Jubilee Party in January 2014, just about a year after the 2013 presidential election was 44 per cent against NASA’s (then the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy) 38 per cent.

Wolf, however, noted that NASA had gained a bit of ground since April last year just after naming its presidential candidate, its popularity rising to 42 per cent in July compared to Jubilee’s 44 per cent at the time.

“As we approached the election last year, the gap narrowed especially after NASA named its presidential candidate in April ahead of the August 8 General Election,” he said.

NASA, however, recorded a sharp decline thereafter sliding to 41 per cent in July last year, 39 per cent in October to the new low of 37 per cent in March 2018.

Jubilee’s popularity rose to 45 per cent in July, 48 per cent in October reaching 49 per cent, the highest level yet, in March 2018.

The pollster also asked respondents whether they thought any political party in the country represented their interest to which question only 55 per cent answered in the affirmative.

Thirty-seven per cent of respondents did not think political parties represented their interests whereas six per cent said they were not sure.

Jubilee supporters gave their party the highest approval rating as far as representing their interests is concerned at 64 per cent, against 31 per cent who disagreed.

In the NASA camp, 55 per cent of supporters felt parties affiliated to the alliance represented their interests, 39 per cent disapproving.

A trend analysis between January 2013 and March 2018, however, shows a sharp decline in trust among supporters of different parties in as far as championing their interests is concerned.

For instance, in January 2013 75 per cent of supporters of political parties said their party represented their interests; the percentage falling to an all-time low of 32 per cent from November 2016 to June 2016, up to 51 per cent in May 2017, down to 46 per cent early July, then up to 58 per cent late July.

Cumulatively, in the 45 counties where the study was conducted 50 per cent of respondents said they had confidence in their respective governors.

Chief Justice David Maraga was listed as the second most trusted person in the list, which excluded leaders in the national executive at 40 per cent.

The Supreme Court, Survey Research Firms, and the Judiciary were listed third, fourth, and fifth most trusted institutions at 31, 26, and 22 per cent.

The National Police Service (NPS) Inspector General, Joseph Boinnet, NPS, Western diplomats and political parties were ranked at 20, 19, 14, and 13 per cent respectively.

The survey was conducted through a random multi-stage stratified sampling methodology proportionate to population size in forty-five counties.

All respondents were adults aged 18 years and above both in rural and urban areas who were engaged through face-to-face interviews.



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