, NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug 1 – President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga are still knotted in a tight race to State House, with a new study by Infotrak Research and Consulting revealing the two are only one percentage point apart.
According to Infotrak’s Chief Executive Angela Ambitho, Odinga’s popularity for the top job now stands at 49 per cent compared to Kenyatta’s 48 per cent.
The poll conducted between July 27 and 31 also reveals that some 2.2 per cent of voters are still undecided, with Ambitho saying they could tilt the outcome of the August 8 vote in favour of either candidate.
“From our general analysis what we’ve seen is that the intention not to vote is highest in North Eastern, parts of the Coast and Western region. In other regions, almost everybody we interviewed said they intend to vote unless otherwise,” she said while releasing the findings on Tuesday.
Ambitho explained the sharp decline in the number of the undecided voters to the methodology adopted during the interviews which sought to find out the political inclination of 5000 respondents sampled across the country, regardless of whether or not they have made up their mind to participate in the elections.
“If anybody said they were undecided we acknowledged that but however asked them to tell us who they would vote for assuming they were in a polling station but we still had people who said they still did not know who they would vote for whereas others refused to answer,” Ambitho explained.
Compared to a poll by the same firm last week, both Odinga and Kenyatta have moved a point ahead of their ratings of 48 and 47 per cent respectively.
With a 95 per cent degree of confidence and 1.4 per cent of the likelihood of error Odinga’s popularity is highest in Nyanza (86 per cent), Western (86 per cent), Coast (63 per cent), Nairobi (56 per cent) and Eastern (51 per cent).
Kenyatta’s popularity is highest in Central (92 per cent), Rift Valley (65 per cent) and North Eastern (48 per cent).
In Central, Rift Valley, and North Eastern regions, Odinga’s likelihood of getting elected is at five, thirty-two and forty-six per cent respectively.
Kenyatta also enjoys significant support from Coast, Eastern, Western and Nyanza regions where he is rated at 32, 47, 19 and 14 per cent respectively.
The survey which has a 95 per cent degree of confidence and a 1.4 per cent likelihood of error, identifies counties of Lamu, Isiolo, Samburu, Narok, Kajiado, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, and Nairobi as battlegrounds for the two candidates.
Counties of Tana River, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, West Pokot, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo, Nakuru, Laikipia, Kericho, Bomet are identified as Kenyatta’s strongholds.
Odinga on the other hand enjoys significant support from voters in Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Turkana, Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Kisii County, all of which are classified as his strongholds.