NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug 2 – Assuming a voter turnout of 85 per cent, President Uhuru Kenyatta will trounce his main rival Raila Odinga by garnering 54 per cent of the vote on August 8.
A study conducted by the Centre for African Progress (CAP) between July 28 and August 1 indicates that Odinga would only manage 43 per cent of the presidential vote, the firm’s head of operations Abel Oyieyo explained on Wednesday.
“Three per cent of the people who responded were undecided or they preferred another candidate such as Abduba Dida and Ekuru Aukot. It is not really about campaigns at this point but about getting closer to elections and voters are making up their mind most of them thinking it’s either going to be Kenyatta or Odinga,” Oyieyo stated while releasing the finding at a Nairobi hotel.
According to the data gathered during the study which saw 9,995 respondents sampled across the country through a random multistage stratified methodology, President Kenyatta’s influence in the Rift Valley and Eastern has significantly increased over the past few weeks.
“In nearly all the regions, the two leading candidates maintained their support where Raila maintained but the presidents support in Rift Valley has moved from 66 per cent in our previous opinion poll to 69 per cent – a shift of three per cent in the region,” Oyieyo said.
Kenyatta also has an edge over Odinga in Central, North Eastern, and Eastern where his support is placed at 95, 64 and 61 per cent respectively.
Odinga is projected to get four, 33 and 36 per cent of the vote in the three regions in the same order.
The coast region is a battleground for the two according to the poll, with Odinga having an upper hand with 50 per cent over his opponent’s 44 per cent, despite the region having overwhelmingly supported the former premier in the 2013 General Election.
The same obtains in the country’s capital – Nairobi – Odinga and Kenyatta sharing the spoils at 52 and 47 per cent in favour of the former.
Odinga’s bases according to the study with a projected accuracy of ninety-nine per cent are Nyanza and Western where he commands 84 and 65 per cent of support.
President Kenyatta is also projected to win over fifty per cent of the vote in twenty-six counties against the opposition chief’s 21 counties.
Confidence levels in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) are also relatively high; at least 61 per cent of Kenyans believing the poll body will conduct credible polls on August 8.
“As we inch closer to the elections, more Kenyans believe IEB is well positioned to conduct a free, fair and credible election. This is very significant because it is going to make it possible for presidential candidates to accept results which is key to avoiding violence,” said Oyieyo.
Some ten per cent of the 9,995 respondents sampled however said they will not participate in the elections.
“It appears that there are Kenyans who don’t care about political process because of frustration and unmet expectations,” the research executive said.
The study also revealed that a significant number of voters in urban areas may not participate in elections as they travel to their respective rural homes in fear of tension.
In Nairobi, the Senator Mike Sonko is the most preferred choice for Governor.
Some 3,400 respondents sampled between July 28 and August 1 indicated that the Jubilee Party candidate for the city’s top job would garner 53 per cent of the vote.
“Nairobi is turning out to be a very interesting case because Sonko appears to be drawing support from nearly all ethnic groups.”
“The respondents cited performance most of them saying whenever they have problems, he shows up,” Oyieyo pointed out.
Governor Evans Kidero on the other hand will manage forty per cent according to the poll, respondents citing dissatisfaction with his performance over the past four-and-a-half years.
“Kidero has a challenge when it comes to performance. Most respondents described him as the most corrupt governor and that is why we think it is going to be hard for him,” stated Oyieyo.
According to the study, Peter Kenneth who quit the governing party to run on an Independent ticket after losing in the April primaries will only secure four per cent, Miguna Miguna projected to secure one per cent.