NAIROBI, Kenya, Jul 27 – A new poll by Infotrak research and consulting gives four incumbent governors a commanding lead over their opponents.
Migori’s Okoth Obado (ODM), Turkana’s Josphat Nanok (ODM), Bungoma’s Ken Lusaka (Jubilee) and Embu’s Martin Wambora (Jubilee) are projected to win the elections by 71, 77, 52 and 48 per cent respectively according to findings of the study released on Thursday by Senior Research Executive, Mary Mburu.
Senator John Munyes (Jubilee) is behind Nanok with a 14 per cent rating, Ochillo Ayacko (Independent) follows Obado at 20 per cent, Wycliffe Wangamati (FORD-Kenya) is behind Lusaka at 31 per cent and Senator Lenny Kivuti (Maendeleo Chap Chap) behind Wambora, at 26 per cent.
In Nyandarua however, the incumbent Daniel Waithaka (Independent) is headed for a defeat if elections were to be held today with Jubilee Party’s Francis Kimemia leading with 66 per cent.
With 9.3 per cent, the Nyandarua County chief is followed by independent candidate Moses Ndirangu (4.2 per cent) and Francis Kanja of Maendeleo Chap Chap who scored 1.1 per cent in the poll.
Other than Kivuti, runners up in Embu according to six hundred respondents sampled would be Kiragu Kithinji of PNU at 6.3 per cent, Njeru Leonard of NARC Kenya and Peter Njagi of PNU who would barely manage a percentage point (0.7).
In Kakamega, Alfred Khangati of ODM came in third with 5.2 per cent; Mutoro Simiyu of NARC-Kenya fourth with 0.1 per cent.
In Kisumu, Gibagiri Chrispinus of the ruling party is placed at 4.4 per cent, ahead of Okoth Otieno of Amani National Congress and independent candidate Ogallo Samson rated at 1.9 and 0.9 per cent respectively.
According to the survey, a significant proportion of voters in Embu, Nyandarua, Bungoma, and Turkana remain undecided on their choice for governor at 16, 18, 10 and 8 per cent.
NASA co-principal and FORD-Kenya leader Moses Wetangula is leading in the senatorial race in Bungoma at 58.6 percent ahead of Jubilee’s Mukwana Eusebius who has 8.7 percent.
This, as it emerged majority of voters in Embu and Nyandarua, are undecided on their choice for senator.
According to the Infotrak poll, 58 per cent of voters are undecided in Embu, where Peter Njeru of Jubilee Party leads the race with 32 per cent followed by Njeru Kennedy of ODM at 4.5 per cent.
Similarly, in Nyandarua, 53 per cent of voters are undecided with Paul Mwangi of the ruling party ahead with 45 per cent compared to Maendeleo Chap Chap’s John Muhia whose rating stands at 1.7 per cent.
“The residents in these counties are just not convinced with the candidates on offer. You also have senators vying for governor who’ve left a gap that candidates on offer don’t seem to be able to fill,” Infotrak’s Mburu said.
The Woman Representative contest in the five counties also has similar trends as that of the Senate, a whopping 57 per cent of Embu voters polling undecided on their choice of a woman legislator.
However, Jubilee’s Jane Njiru is the most likely to be elected with a rating of 19 per cent followed by independent Rose Mitaru (7.1 per cent), Dorothy Nditi of MCC (7 per cent), KANU’s Susan Nyaga (4.8 per cent), independent Monica Gitari (2.5 per cent) and Democratic Party’s Josephine Wambura (1.2 per cent).
An almost similar situation obtains in Nyandarua where 23 per cent of voters are undecided on the choice of the Woman Representative.
Faith Gitau of Jubilee Party, however, has a commanding lead of 75 per cent, followed by MCC’s Monica Nyambura and independent candidate Esther Wambui whom respondents rated at 1.2 and 1.1 per cent respectively.
In Turkana, ODM’s Pauline Lokuruka is the most popular candidate with an approval rating of 26 per cent, two percentage points ahead of Jubilee Party’s Joyce Emanikor (24 per cent).
Mashinani’s Beatrice Nakusa is, however, following the pair closely at 22 per cent.
The race which has 12.5 per cent of voters undecided according to the survey, has Jacinta Abenyo (Independent), Cecilia Namulen (MCC) and Rhoda Arupe (Independent) trailing behind the three dominant candidates at eight, four and 3.6 per cent respectively.
With 22 per cent of respondents saying they were undecided on the choice of a Woman Representative in Bungoma, the race is between FORD-Kenya’s Catherine Wambilinga (41.5 per cent) and Jubilee’s Reginalda Wanyonyi (32.3 per cent) separated by ten points.
Kisumu voters appear to have made up their minds on the choice for a Woman Representative with only 5.7 undecided voters.
ODM’s Pamela Ochieng is the woman to beat at 58 per cent, FORD-Kenya’s Angellah Bhioke and independent candidate Fatuma Mohamed a distance second and third at twelve and eleven per cent.
Some 1200 and 900 respondents were sampled in face-to-face interviews in Migori and Turkana, the degree of confidence placed at 99 per cent and a margin of error of three and three-point-three per cent respectively.
In Bungoma, Nyandarua, and Embu, the poll firm sampled 1500, 750 and 600 respondents respectively in Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI).
With a degree of confidence of 95 per cent, the poll finding in the three counties have a margin of error of 2.5, 3.6 and four respectively.
“Why we do telephone interviews is because they are faster because we do not have to commission and train a team which is more costly,” Mburu explained.