– Beijing warnings –
Tsai has walked a careful path on her China strategy, saying she wants to maintain the “status quo” with Beijing.
But the DPP is traditionally a pro-independence party and opponents say Tsai will destabilise relations.
Current KMT president Ma has overseen a dramatic rapprochement with China since coming to power in 2008.
Although Taiwan is self-ruling after it split with China following a civil war in 1949, it has never declared independence and Beijing still sees it as part of its territory awaiting reunification.
The thaw culminated in a summit between Ma and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November.
Yet despite more than 20 deals and a tourist boom, closer ties have exacerbated fears that China is eroding Taiwan’s sovereignty by making it economically dependent.
Low salaries and high housing prices are also riling voters.
Beijing has warned it will not deal with any leader who does not recognise the “one China” principle, part of a tacit agreement between Beijing and the KMT known as the “1992 consensus”.
The DPP has never recognised the consensus.
Observers say it is unlikely Tsai will do anything to provoke Beijing if she wins.
Analysts also agree there will not be any immediate backlash from China, as alienating Taiwan would play against Beijing’s ultimate aim of reunification.
“Relations will be more complicated and less predictable. They will deteriorate to some extent but at the same time Beijing’s interest is to keep Taiwan as dependent economically,” said political analyst Jean-Pierre Cabestan of Hong Kong Baptist University.
Some say Beijing will employ tougher tactics if it feels there is no progress in dialogue.
Polls close at 4pm (0800 GMT), with results announced Saturday night.
There are also parliamentary elections Saturday, with the KMT risking losing its majority in the legislature.
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