But other experts doubt the strength of the groups and their links to global terrorism, with some arguing China exaggerates the threat to justify tough security measures in Xinjiang.
The shadowy nature of the alleged Uighur extremists also means there is a lack of hard information on their numbers, location and capabilities.
“I remain unconvinced that ETIM has survived as an influential organisation these last years,” Bovingdon said. “Beijing constantly adverts to it precisely because the US once identified ETIM as a terrorist organisation.”
He also expressed doubts that the TIP, seen by some as ETIM’s successor, has any influence.
“All the evidence I’ve seen thus far tells us no more than that some bearded Uighur speakers armed with weapons and a smattering of Islamic learning can make videos,” he said.
Chung Chien-peng, professor of political science at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, cautioned it was too early to say who was responsible for Kunming.
But it had “shock value”, he said, and “desperation or… frustration” may prove to be the cause.
The latest assault will not be the last, Gunaratna believes.
“The Kunming attack is a natural progression of violence that we have witnessed in Xinjiang,” he said.
“It’s a low-cost, high-impact attack and a long-range attack. And this kind of attack sends a very clear message to China. They will strike again, they will strike outside Xinjiang.”
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