Why Uhuru beat Raila – survey

March 15, 2013 1:49 pm
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Senior researcher Tom Wolf attributed this to the strong campaign mechanism the president-elect set in motion to persuade his supporters to vote for him/FILE
Senior researcher Tom Wolf attributed this to the strong campaign mechanism the president-elect set in motion to persuade his supporters to vote for him/FILE
NAIROBI, Kenya, Mar 15 – A recent survey indicates that President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta won the March 4 election mainly due to a large turnout of his supporters.

According to the study conducted by IPSOS Synovate, the voter turnout from his strongholds stood at 88 percent while that of Prime Minister Raila Odinga stood at 84 percent.

Senior researcher Tom Wolf attributed this to the strong campaign mechanism the president-elect set in motion to persuade his supporters to vote for him.

“In Raila’s list of the 20 counties where he did best, He actually had more registered voters than Uhuru did. However, because of the differential turnout average where it was 88 percent in Uhuru’s 20 counties but only 84 percent in Raila’s 20 counties, the actual vote gap between them disappears in terms of votes cast,” he said.

Wolf told reporters that Kenyatta was able to win 75 percent of the votes cast in his top 20 counties while Odinga only got 63 percent.

“Seventy-nine percent of the registered voters in Kenyatta’s 19 strongholds voted for him and nine percent did so in Odinga’s stronghold. Also, in Odinga’s strongholds, only 66 percent of the registered voters voted for him while 10 percent of them voted for Kenyatta,” he said.

“This is a 13 percent gap in turnout between the voters in their respective strongholds according to the IEBC (Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission),” he added.

He also pointed out that the president-elect was able to attract more voters in Odinga’s vote basket in comparison to the outgoing PM’s performance in his.

“In the Jubilee strongholds there were roughly 5.7 million registered voters. Uhuru got four and a half of those while Raila got slightly under half a million. In the Cord strongholds, there were about the same numbers of registered voters of 5.4 million. Likewise, Uhuru got about a half a million, while Raila got significantly less than Uhuru did,” he said.

Wolf also pointed out that in areas that were considered to be Odinga’s vote basket, Kenyatta garnered 2,080,041 votes.

He compared this with the 1,577,071 votes that Odinga got in Kenyatta’s strongholds.

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