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More than 30 percent of Americans are expected to vote before Tuesday/AFP-File

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What to watch for on US election night

+ THE ROMNEY SCENARIO: The challenger’s path to victory is narrower. He is assured 24 states representing 191 electoral votes, leaving him 79 short. If Obama holds Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Romney must win two of the three biggest toss-ups – Florida, Ohio and Virginia – as well as most of the other battlegrounds.

Look for New Hampshire (4) as a key early test; it’s small, but potentially indicative of how the night may turn for Romney.

+ CONGRESS: All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are 33 seats in the Senate. Republicans are expected to hold the House. The Democrats’ 53-47 majority in the Senate is more tenuous. A race to watch is the Massachusetts battle between Republican incumbent Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren. Other key Senate contests are in Indiana, Missouri and Virginia.

+ EARLY VOTING: More than 30 percent of Americans are expected to vote before Tuesday – either absentee or in person.

+ RECOUNT REDUX?: Each state has its own recount rules. In the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, some Florida counties launched recounts while others did not. With the prospect of very close results in some states, phalanxes of lawyers on each side are prepared to bring legal action, raising the potential for final result delays.

+ THE OHIO QUESTION: A nightmare scenario may be brewing in crucial Ohio, where authorities sent absentee ballot applications to every voter. People who applied for such ballots but then decide to vote in person will be required to cast provisional ballots that are sealed until it can be proven that they haven’t already voted.

Some 200,000 provisional ballots may be cast, and state law does not allow them to be opened until November 17.

Complicating the count are mail-in ballots, which can arrive as late as November 16 so long as they are post-marked by November 5.

And if the results are within 0.5 percentage points, an automatic recount of all ballots is triggered.

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