NAIROBI, Kenya, Oct 2 – Prime Minister Raila Odinga would lose to either of his two deputies Uhuru Kenyatta or Musalia Mudavadi if they were to face each other in a presidential run-off today.
According to a new poll by Ipsos Synovate, Kenyatta would win by 50 percent in a run-off with Odinga who would manage 42 percent with eight percent of undecided voters.
In a run-off between Mudavadi and Odinga, the DPM would garner 47 percent to Odinga’s 43 percent.
Ipsos Synovate Managing Director Margaret Ireri said Kenyatta would be the biggest beneficiary in the event fellow G7 members Kalonzo Musyoka and William Ruto dropped off in the first round.
“Both Odinga and Kenyatta retain majority of their supporters in round two of voting but Uhuru will benefit most form the absence of other candidates getting 81 percent of support from William Ruto, 63 percent from Kalonzo Musyoka, 53 percent Martha Karua and 58 percent from Mudavadi,” said Ireri.
The new poll showed that Odinga would keep 94 percent of his supporters from the first round of polls while Kenyatta would retain 98 percent of his supporters from round one.
Ireri insisted that the number of undecided voters in each of the cases would reshape the results depending on the way they decided to vote.
“The proportion of those undecided is too high for the run-off results to be conclusive. The undecided respondents have a potential to change the political landscape once they decide they could swing the vote either way,” she explained.
A poll by Synovate in April showed that Odinga and Kenyatta would tie in the run-off with 44 percent with 12 percent undecided.
The same poll in April gave Odinga a razor thin lead ahead of Mudavadi with a 43 percent versus 41 percent support.
The new poll findings indicated that there was direct relation between the presidential candidates and regional support for political parties as candidates received overwhelming support from their home provinces.
“Presidential candidate support by province is similar to their political party support by province. Over the last few years, survey results have consistently indicated the ethnocentric nature of presidential and political support,” said Ireri.
The self funded poll in which 2,229 respondents were interviewed on phone also showed that Odinga remains the most popular presidential candidate with 36 percent followed closely by Kenyatta while Mudavadi takes third place with seven percent.
The percentage of undecided voters further came down from 12 percent in April to seven percent in September.
The survey conducted between September 24 and 28 also showed that the popularity of The National Alliance(TNA) led by Kenyatta had grown 16 percent in July to 27 percent while that of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) which was ranked the most popular party had grown from 32 percent in July to 35 percent.
Among the key factors that Ireri listed as possible game changers in the 2013 general elections was the final list of candidates on the ballot paper, the choice of running mates, pre-election party alliances and voter turn out.