, NAIROBI, Kenya Mar 21- Prime Minister Raila Odinga will walk out of the Grand Coalition Government by the end of the year if his co-principal President Mwai Kibaki insists on holding the next general elections in March next year, an analyst has predicted.
Consulting House CEO Mutahi Ngunyi said the PM knows such a move will not trigger an early election but will be aimed at siding with many Kenyans who oppose the March 4 date announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
“So that polarity is what will cause the collapse of the Grand Coalition Government and that is what Raila is waiting for,” he said when he appeared as a guest on K24’s current affairs talk show, Capital Talk hosted by Jeff Koinange.
Ngunyi said it would be unwise for the PM to pull out of the government at the moment “as there is a likelihood that the PNU wing of the coalition might continue serving.”
He added: “The notion that the government will collapse if the PM pulls out is not embraced in the National Accord and he must tread carefully.”
The National Accord states that; the Coalition will be dissolved if the current Parliament is dissolved; or if the parties agree in writing; or if one coalition partner withdraws from the Coalition.
He said Odinga’s protests over the nomination of Amina Masoud and others as the chair of the National Police Service Commission and the March 4 election date set by the IEBC are heightening fears of a possible ODM pullout from the Coalition.
The Prime Minister has opposed the March 4, 2013 election date set saying it is not favourable with a majority of Kenyans.
Narc-K Kenya leader and presidential aspirant Martha Karua over the weekend urged the PM to pull out of the unity government in October to force a December poll, which Ngunyi says might well work a in the PM favour as it will polarize Kenyan politics and the country
However over the weekend a section of leaders in Nyanza warned the PM against pulling out of the coalition government prematurely.
They advised Raila to consult with President Mwai and explore the possibility of having the elections in December.
President Kibaki and Odinga did not meet on Tuesday as widely speculated as it turned out that the premier was not ready to re-negotiate his preference for a December election date.
Sources close to the Prime Minister told Capital FM News that there was no planned meeting with the President.
On the ICC cases, Ngunyi said that the accused Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto were likely to be detained by The Hague court.
“My advise is that the ‘Ocampo Four’ should not appear at the trials once the date for the trial to begin is set,” he said.
Ngunyi cited the case of Thomas Lubanga who was recently convicted of war crimes in the DRC, who he said was not allowed to travel back to Kinshasa after the Trial Chamber imposed fresh conditions for bail requiring him not to leave the confines of The Hague.
The renowned analyst suggested that the Chamber might also use the sensitivity of the polls to detain the quartet, fearing that their presence in campaign rallies would raise tensions.
“Where in the world do you have a person labelled as international criminals roaming around Paris into Amsterdam, it doesn’t happen. If I were them between now and April I would not even leave the country,” Ngunyi said.
He added: “If you go off to see your doctor in London, then warrants of arrests are issued against you, and when you are at Heathrow first class lounge and you are arrested just know you will be coming here (to Kenya) 21 years later.”
He added that the President Kibaki is unlikely to hand over the Ocampo 4, in the event that the ICC issues warrants for their arrests leading to another standoff between him and the PM.
“There is likely to be polarity between the Kibaki function of government and Raila function, and that polarity will be such that, Raila will be saying you cannot be having criminals hiding here and we are not giving them up, and Kibaki is saying forget about it, I’m not doing it,” Ngunyi explained.
Odinga has maintained that the four suspects should be detained at The Hague.
In a statement signed by Raila Odinga Secretariat on March 10, 2012, the secretariat said crimes against humanity were worse than murder yet the Kenyan suspects remained free, traversing the country holding prayer meetings.
It continued: “While Kenyans suspected of the lesser crime of murder conduct their prayers only behind the forbidden walls of Kamiti Maximum Security Prison, often for years before their cases are heard.