Raila still the man to beat in 2012

November 13, 2010 12:00 am

, NAIROBI, Kenya, Nov 13 – Prime Minister Raila Odinga is still the most popular presidential candidate according to a new poll released on Saturday.

Managing Director at poll firm Synovate George Waititu said 48 percent of those surveyed indicated they would vote for Mr Odinga if elections were to be held today, compared to 14 percent and 12 percent who would vote for Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka respectively.

"On presidential personalities, Raila is still the most popular followed distantly by Uhuru. The survey deliberately excluded the current President, based on constitutional limits to running for presidency," he explained of the poll which was conducted between October 24 and 30.

A breakdown of the eight provinces showed that the Premier led in all regions except Central and Eastern Provinces.

"Uhuru, the second most popular candidate leads in Central (49%) and attracts one in every ten voting age Kenyans in Nairobi. Kalonzo is most popular in Eastern among 39% of adult citizens, while Ruto commands just over a quarter (28%) of Rift Valley voting age Kenyans," Mr Waititu said.

When asked which party the respondents felt close to, 14 percent said \’none\’ while 48 percent said ODM which means that the Orange Party\’s popularity is on the rise.

"Considering the past twelve months, ODM demonstrates a steady rise of popularity from
36% in December 2009. Those who claim no affiliation to a political party have also declined steadily from 35% last year, although between June 2010 and October the percentage has slightly increased from 11% to 14%," the poll indicated.

"It seems that Kenyans found their affiliation closer to the referendum held in August, hence the decline of those not affiliated to any party. The Party of National Unity, ODM Kenya and Narc Kenya have remained fairly constant, at least from March 2010."

The sample size used a 32:68 urban to rural ratio and attracted a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent.

"This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion at a national level. Data were collected through face to face interviews and was financed by Synovate," Mr Waititu said.


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