NAIROBI, Kenya, Jul 23 – With just eleven days to the referendum, two opinion polls released on Friday indicate that Kenyans will approve the proposed Constitution with a huge margin.
The survey by pollsters Infotrak and Synovate showed that most Kenyans will largely endorse the draft during the August 4 referendum.
Infotrak’s poll showed that 65 percent of Kenyans will vote ‘Yes’ if the referendum was held today while 25 percent will vote ‘No’ as 10 percent of voters remain undecided.
Download the full poll by Infotrak here.
Synovate’s poll gave the Yes a lead of 58 percent of Kenyans, No vote is at 20 percent while 17 percent said they were undecided which way to vote.
Infotrak Chief Executive Officer Angela Ambitho says most of those likely to vote for the proposed draft are linking its passage to good governance.
“When we were seeing the data, our “don’t know” was 15 percent but as you get to listen or read and internalise the information on then proposed Constitution you certainly will not sit on the fence,” she said.
The poll commissioned by the Centre for Multi-party Democracy – Kenya and carried out by Infotrak Research says that the support for the proposed document has grown due to heightened campaigns that have been led by the President Mwai Kibaki who has been criss crossing the country drumming up support for the law.
The poll that was conducted between July 17 and 19 targeting 2,500 respondents shows awareness has grown mainly in Central Province since May when they released their last poll.
“The country is more Green that Red,” said Synovate Managing Director George Waititu while releasing the results.
According to the Synovate poll the Yes vote is leading in all the eight provinces although the No support almost equals it in Eastern and the Rift Valley. Mr Waititu said judging by the recent trends the margins are unlikely to change on the August 4 vote.
“The strongest areas for the No support are coming from areas such as Keiyo, Bomet and Marakwet. The strongest undecided districts are Mbeere, Embu, Baringo and Transmara,” he said.
Researcher Tom Wolf says that the awareness of the draft is growing in the country owing to the ongoing civic education and campaigns.
“Now nearly a quarter of Kenyans say they know a lot about the draft from about 10 percent lat month. Those who know nothing has gone down from 13 percent to four percent,” he said.
The poll conducted by Synovate between July 11 and 17 targeted 6,500 respondents with a rural urban distribution of 65 percent and 35 respectively.
It further shows that President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga have brought followers to the Yes camp, while Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka is struggling with only over 40 pecent of his supporters in the camp.
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