Why I believe CORD will be uncorded on March 4

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KIBE MUNGAI

The great Irish novelist and wordsmith George Orwell could have written in contemporary Kenya that if the word cord refers to a rope or string made of twisted threads, the word cord can also mean tying something with a rope. By extension to untie something could also be referred to as uncord.

Thus there should be something as uncord in Orwellian-speak the masterly of which is a prerequisite for a practical understanding of Raila Odinga’s Coalition of Reforms and Democracy (CORD).

As the curtains close on the presidential election campaigns, it is obvious that Raila Odinga will not emerge tops despite consistently leading in opinion polls. No wonder CORD is investing massively to prevent the Jubilee Alliance from winning the first round of the presidential election.

In my view, the unpredictability of the Luhya and Kamba votes counsels caution in evaluating RAO’s chances on Monday. This article however argues that even if CORD succeeds in pushing the presidential contest into a run-off, that may not be enough to assure it of victory. There are two reasons for saying so.

I. THE TYRANNY OF NUMBERS THESIS

The persuasiveness of Mutahi Ngunyi’s Tyranny of Numbers thesis on the relationship between voters registration and the likely outcomes of the presidential contest between CORD and Jubilee political coalitions derives not so much from its compelling case but more from the timid, subjective and surreal responses of his critics.

A perfect example of such responses is lawyer Wachira Maina’s paper entitled “Kenyans Don’t Always Vote Tribally”. The central pillars of former President Moi’s political supremacy were founded on patrimonial state and Anti-Kikuyu ideology which had considerable traction among political elites across the country. In many ways ODM’s 2007 presidential campaign was a bold attempt to reverse history and return the Moi state.

To my mind, the fact that Raila’s opinion poll rating rose from 13.5 percent in December, 2006 to 47 percent in December, 2007 reaffirms my contention rather than constitute proof of his enduring support outside his ethnic political base. Interestingly, the desperation with which the CORD alliance was cobbled-up in a deal that is heavily skewed in favour of Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula is all the proof one requires.

Thus in the absence of the run-away anti-Kikuyuism in this election which arose after the 2005 referendum, it is not easy to understand how Raila’s political castle can withstand the demolition of the ethnic pillars known as the summit of 2007. Considering all this, I believe that opinion polls have clearly seen misrepresenting the political reality hence Raila’s outburst against Ngunyi’s thesis. Is there a good reason why opinion polls would be rigged? Absolutely, I dare say!

Wachira Maina’s argument on incumbency partly explains why. Elections favour incumbents precisely because voters are basically conservative creatures and history shows it is easier to retain rather than get power. Therefore, if you are a neutral voter or member of third party communities or AGIP (Any Government in Power) communities, it is better to place your bets with the incumbent rather than the challenger.

Similarly, voters from Third Party and AGIP communities are wont to place their bets with the most probable winner as opposed to “good” or preferred candidate who may not win the game.

It follows therefore that in a game where only those who might get gold matters, it matters also that the voter should view you as the likely winner. Thus in becoming King of Opinion Polls, RAO brings the illusion of real king in the minds of the voters. This can only be beneficial for, like with equity, the one who looks and acts like the king, always becomes the king Not surprisingly then, the moment the Tyranny of Numbers thesis came out the comfort in opinion poll ratings went south hence Raila’s outbursts.

II. THE KALONZO MUSYOKA FACTOR

Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka was coerced by his erstwhile political allies to join CORD in pursuit of the Luo-Akamba political alliance. With Kalonzo safe in the castle, CORD supporters contend that over 80 percent of the valid votes of the Kamba will go to Raila. Interestingly this logic fails when it come to the Kalenjins who – it is alleged – may not be psychologically “ready” to vote for another Kikuyu president. Where does the truth lie.

Anecdotal evidence so far is more than revealing. Two things in particular. First Kalonzo does not seem comfortable or sound confident about his new politics in CORD. To make this worse three days to the elections it was revealed that Kalonzo tops his party’s list of nominees to the National Assembly. To my mind, there could be no worse way to cast a vote of “No Confidence” against CORD’s prospect to win the presidency!

The second element is more interesting. If the presidential election goes to the run-off Kalonzo will have to be gazetted and sworn in as an MP before the run-off date. In the event that he does so then he will be automatically disqualified from the run-off.

Something else, If Kalonzo agrees to be sworn as MP he will effectively open himself to offers for leader of majority in the National Assembly from Jubilee. Such an offer will certainly be very tempting for Kalonzo given that it is Johnson Muthama and Mutula Kilonzo who are closer allies of Raila. Where such an eventuality will leave Raila’s presidential bid, talk to your lawyer!

*The writer is a constitutional law practitioner based in Nairobi ([email protected])

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  • I didn’t know Kibe Mungai was such a tribal idiot!To me he will remain a learned enemy till the day he will drop that tribal musk.

  • Ken Mungai

    Never surprising. He has always played this cad since he discovered himself. To him ( read them ) being Kenyan has been second.

  • Omandi

    What about William Samoei Ruto?will he also be required to be sworn in as an Mp,then what?The reverse could also be true for TNA,please be carefull what you wish for your enemy!!

  • Kipkemei

    So, basically, continuing with Mr. Ngunyi’s half baked analysis of Kenya’s politics, Mr. Mungai mis-analyzes Kalonzo’s move, then messes up further by saying that CORD will be uncorded because Mr. Musyoka may be MP and Raila will have no running mate- which constitution is he talking about- the one implemented in a vacuum, without an electoral law? besides, it is highly likely, based on those who followed opinion polls conducted transparently (e.g. one whose 2000 respondents we could all trace back) that Raila may garner upto 55% by 5pm on Monday March 4.

  • MwanaWetu

    It’s going to be a jubilee year come March 4th as Kenyans come out to vote. They threw everything at Uhuru and Ruto but they come out strong and more determined. Kenyans have decided to undo the CORD and your article hits the nail on the head. It’s time to give Kenya a fresh start with a fresh crop of leaders that will push the growth of this country to the next level. Let’s turn out in large numbers tomorrow and vote wisely. Vote peacefully.

  • Orwell

    George Orwell was not Irish.

  • evans

    to me am not amazed by kibe mugai article that what he said in 2007 that RAO will loose his langata parliamentary seat so that virtue he cant be president you might a brilliant lawyer as you want us to believe but you too tribal with your age you are really disappointing the Kenyans who are not tribal who are expecting you as proffessional to write inspiring articles that embarace one nation one people rather tribal articles you continue to write.

  • kamau1947

    George Orwell was English and his name was not G.O. it was a pen name and he would have made nonsense of your logic. 1984 is past and tomorrow the 4th will pass also. Lets see the outcome, I don’t believe it will be as tribal and regional as is suggested here.

  • geoffrey nyairo

    the article’s message is largely incoherent at best; and pathetic in its use of terms at worst. So many contradictions, and I would say that the ‘tyranny of numbers’ was better than this crap. In short, readers are reading the author’s idle thoughts. Sorry

  • Kibe Muingai, you may be a lawyer, but you need to see beyond your tribal nose, nonsense!

  • KaCharlie

    Kibe Mungai has sunk this low. So Moi’s regime was founded on “Anti-Kikuyu ideology”. Where was Raila Odinga during Moi’s regime? Did he serve 10 years as Moi’s VP like the current president or was he to become his heir apparent like your favourite candidate Uhuru Kenyatta? Surely this is a piece of rubbish written by a “learned” fellow.

  • Kindkenyan

    This elections will be won on tribal majority…this is a lesson to all other tribal minorities that voter registration is a very important exercise. Let the minorities pay for the consequences of their ignorance and remember to register in future.

  • Kindkenyan

    Tribal indeed tribal

  • sisemikitu

    From his demeanor and histronics I have always thought he is unbalanced – he is kind of suicidal.

  • popq

    Haya this article seems to be confirmed by Kenyans voting patterns.

  • Paul Douglas Obuong

    You are just one (1 )Kibe with one (1) vote,lets wait for the grand finale tally

  • 1amkenyan

    Only thing though is that Kalonzo’s name is missing from the party list submitted to the IEBC which somewhat negates some of your arguments?

  • musa

    Please Kenyans, lets live beyond clan-ism. What Kenya needs is Kenyans and not our tribes. I wish i would live to one day see, hear and feel that.
    At-least I tried to live above my clan when I was in employment. I do live amongst other tribes and practice love and harmony.

    Kenyans needs to focus onto what puts a plate of ugali onto their table.

  • ali mohamed

    Hahaha, it came to pass the tyranny of numbers. This debate is now closed.

  • MaryT.

    Even though i am reading this after the elections are over, i agree with the argument about the scheming that goes with the opinion polls. They are meant to tell the voter, ‘see, we are winning.’ Voter psychology embraces the one that is going for the win! I tried it personally. I was rooting for PK and i tried to convince those around me to choose him. The answer i was always given resonates with the argument here: “I know that PK is a good man, a hard worker and can make a good leader, BUT, he will not win! I don’t want my vote to go to waste.” People cherish being on the winning side and the opinion polls seek to work towards that gain. In this case, Ngunyi’s tyranny of numbers upset the grand scheme of the opinion polls!

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