Why Mudavadi has Raila running scared

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JOSEPH MBIUKI

ODM supremo Raila Odinga has let out just how seriously he is taking Musalia Mudavadi’s threat to his presidential ambitions by publicly pledging to support the latter if he won the race.

His conciliatory speech to a funeral gathering in Western on Saturday came as further evidence that, with only five months to the General Election, Mudavadi has emerged as Raila’s waking nightmare in the race for the presidency.

That Raila considers Mudavadi a big threat to his presidential bid has been apparent ever since the former ODM comrades parted ways in April. What is new on the map is just how serious this threat is deemed to be, and the extent to which the Raila political machine is prepared to go to clip the Sabatia legislator’s wings.

Raila’s statement was possibly the first time a senior ODM figure has admitted to the Mudavadi threat and was a departure from the party’s public dismissals of the UDF candidate as a small factor.

Privately, however, much thought and planning has gone into countering Mudavadi.

The ODM strategy, revealed by insiders last week, revolves around two key planks: Weakening the United Democratic Front candidate in his Western Kenya home base, and encouraging Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta to go the whole hog in the presidential race.

It is particularly interesting how, and why, the Raila machine is encouraging Uhuru to run.

It all started with doctored opinion polls showing that a run-off between the ODM candidate and Uhuru would result in an almost equal share of votes while a run-off against Mudavadi would tilt the results in Raila’s favour.

The truth of the matter, which has been confirmed by privately-conducted opinion polls for both ODM and TNA – the former recently commissioned a poll with a sample size of a whopping 47,000 respondents – is that Raila would easily beat Uhuru in a runoff while there is no possibility he can win against Mudavadi.

Raila’s strategy against Uhuru in a run-off, summarised in political circles as the “41 against 1 Plan”, and revolves around galvanizing all of Kenya against Uhuru on the basis that it is untenable for a Kikuyu to succeed another. It is indeed very easy to whip up this mantra, even in the short time between the elections and the runoff.

On the other hand, a widely known fact variously confirmed by every opinion poll and national intelligence report, is that Mudavadi is the one candidate most widely accepted across Kenya. If the Kamba cannot have Kalonzo, then they would rather have MM, as he is commonly called. If the Kikuyu cannot have Uhuru, they can live with MM. The same goes for the Kalenjin, the Taita, the Meru and everyone else. Indeed, a recent Synovate research showed Mudavadi coming a strong second in virtually all regions, including Central, Eastern and Rift Valley, other than Western, where he was the leading candidate.

And this is the reality that is giving the Raila team sleepless nights.

The first hurdle towards having Uhuru on the ballot comes from The Hague, that small town in the Netherlands where the TNA leader, along with William Ruto, Francis Muthaura and Joshua Sang, will be tried over the Post Election Violence of 2008. Will Kenya’s increasingly activist courts allow him to run while facing these serious criminal charges?

Strategists at the Friends of Raila lobby group think there is a window of hope provided by Section 93 of the constitution which states that “A person is not disqualified (from contesting) under (2) unless all possibility of appeal or review of the relevant sentence or discussion has been exhausted.”

This, they argue, gives some hope against the stringent demands of Chapter 6, the Leadership and Integrity chapter that many thought could be used to keep Uhuru from the ballot.

The Raila plan has also resulted in the flooding of the Western region with Cabinet positions in a bid to strengthen the anti-MM frontline troops, but this has not been without its own problems.

Although the recent appointments saw the number and profile of Luhya ministers increase, many people were peeved that the Banyala community got the bulk of the seats. Alfred Khang’ati and Ababu Namwamba are Banyala, as is Minister Fred Gumo.

Why were Alfred Sambu and Sospeter Ojaamong overlooked?

A major plank in Raila’s Western Kenya strategy lies in Busia, where he starts with a slight advantage considering that more than 10 percent of the population comprises Luos. That easily explains Namwamba and Otuoma’s good fortunes. They are both from Busia.

Then enters presidential aspirant Cyrus Jirongo. In an obvious throwback to the famous Moi tactics of splitting the enemy lines, Raila went ahead and sponsored Jirongo’s presidential bid, and did not even pretend he wasn’t involved. The launch, attended by key allies such as Namwamba, is intended to crowd the space for Mudavadi to weaken his home base. Raila is also understood to have sponsored Charity Ngilu’s candidature in a bid to weaken Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka in Ukambani.

Not surprisingly, whereas Mudavadi had to vacate his Local Government portfolio when he declared his candidature, Ngilu does not have to do the same. No one in ODM is asking her to do so.

Jirongo’s bid appears to have fallen flat and has had absolutely no effect in the Western Kenya politics.

Raila’s challenge in this election is unique. Whereas in the past he has played the reformer card, pegged around the quest for a new constitution, that is no longer a valid card since the new laws are now with us. So what is his compelling agenda this time round?

For other contenders particularly Uhuru and Ruto, this election is about only one issue: the ICC. They would like the voting to be divided along the lines of who wants the four PEV suspects hanged in Europe, and who is willing to put up a fight for them.

The battle lines are clear here. While Raila has stated several times that the four would be behind bars if it were up to him, Kalonzo has been equally unequivocal in his campaign for the four not to go to the Hague, even though many have doubted his real intentions.

Indeed, Kalonzo’s willingness to fight the Hague monster partly explains why Ruto appears to give him his time of day.

There were reports last week that the two, along with APK’s Kiraitu Murungi, who is fed up with Uhuru’s increasingly overconfident and often arrogant stance, were about to agree to a pre-election pact.

The Raila brigade is not particularly worried about Kalonzo, even with Ruto and Kiraitu on his side: He is considered to be the wimp of Kenya political class and unlikely to reach the run-off stage.

On the other hand Mudavadi’s statements during his recent US tour in response to reporters’ questions clearly defined his position on the issue.

In his clearest stand yet on the Hague trials he said:

“We killed each other in 2008. Women were raped; children were molested. It would be cowardly to wish this away. We must accept responsibility collectively. The nation is guilty. To prosecute four people for the sins of 40 million people is therefore preposterous. The four carry our national shame, but they must not carry our national guilt. We must all own up.”

Political observers see the race for the presidency taking a more definite shape in the next one month or so as the flurry of defections and realignments is concluded. Raila’s claims that this is going to be a two-horse race, between him and Uhuru, is seen by observers as another effort to discourage Mudavadi and cheer Uhuru on.

Whether this strategy works or not remains to be seen.

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  • Brother, PM Raila is not afraid at all of brother Mudavadi. Actually he sees him as one of his softest targets. In Odm circles, Mudavadi is just a “perhaps!” Meaning that if he “ever” manages to assemble a serious campaign team, the least he can do is to spoil a few votes for Odm in the western region. The recent high profile appointments were patently meant to forestall that. Mudavadi’s chances of winning are actually very remote indeed. One on one with Raila, Mudavadi would be reduced to shreds within a very short time indeed. Obviously, Raila has managed to convince alot of people in western Kenya that Mudavadi is no big deal. That he lost a civic seat in his home turf in recent by-elections, though not very important, helped reinforce that perception. Its also impossible for Mudavadi to win when he is armed with very little, if not totally nothing! His campaign script has been only Odm’s stale stuff. Odm’s strategists know for sure destroying such
    a weak a campaign is no more than a child’s play!
    On the other hand, brother Uhuru’s numbers were only being inflated because of his soft belly in terms of tribalism. Your analysis on him is quite right. Given choice between a Kikuyu and Raila, Kenyans would most certainly go for Raila. That Raila is at ease playing tribalism is not in doubt at all. The moment he goes wild about Kikuyu perceived thefts and misuse of power to enrich themselves, Uhuru’s hopes would fade instantly. Needless to say, given the unspoken raw envy against the Kikuyus’ endowments, any candidate from central region would find the going very rough indeed this time round. Thus, big prospects of Uhuru humiliation by Raila have remained the only aim by Odm strategists.
    The only candidate Raila has tried through hook and crook, not to face is no other than brother VP Kalonzo Musyoka. Despite dismissive propaganda by Raila men, Kalonzo is the candidate Raila would hate to meet at the ballot, especially when he is a joint G7 candidate. Uhuru’s men have also been dismissive, but thats mainly because they are overwhelmed by Odm’s vicious lies. You only need to look at Raila’s reaction when it became clear that indeed Kalonzo was the only show in Ukambani. Sister Hon. Ngilu was quickly called to denounce the VP and even align her briefcase party to Odm! Then things were still not working and desperation was getting out of hand. Her belated “bid”
    for presidency became the awkward solution! That too hasnt gained any currency at all.
    Thats why have “beens” like Kalembe fellow are being brought on board. The idea being to show that Kalonzo is not in charge of his home ground. However, on the ground things are totally different. The much hyped Ngilu “factor” is not there. Kambas, as I personally witnessed recently when I visited the area for harambee function, are solidly behind the VP. Ngilu’s candidacy is being viewed as malicious betrayal of sorts. Truly residents there view Ngilu’s futile attempts the way they have always viewed wicked machinations by Raila against their son and “only” hope as one old man put it. The mzee went on to say that their son’s purported low numbers were only manufactured by wicked people whose agenda is against the Kamba. He said that Ngilu’s time is long gone and forgotten. He actually insisted that Ngilu was being used by unfriendly outsiders.
    Raila’s men are all in agreement that VP Kalonzo’s endorsement by G7 will be a game changer. Thats why they have made sure that his numbers are perpetually kept low. Accusations against him in connection with shuttle diplomacy were geared towards that end. That Kalonzo has no tainted past poses nightmare for Odm is not in doubt. He is one person that can not be dismantled through mischief and mischief alone. Since he parted ways with Raila, poisonous propaganda has been spewed against him with very little success. Only brother Uhuru and likes of Tony Gachoka have been ready consumers of such vile. Desperation on part of PM Raila is increasingly crippling. Thats why likes of Petterson Mittau from Changamwe, who purportedly defected to Odm last year, supposedly “defected from” Wiper party last month!

    • Honest one

      ..Dude…and you are calling others tribalists…

  • Mr. Mbiuki I have taken the time to comprehensively respond to your
    piece as follows. What you have said is in quotes for those who have not
    read the article.

    “ODM supremo Raila Odinga has let out just how seriously he
    is taking Musalia Mudavadi’s threat to his presidential ambitions by publicly
    pledging to support the latter if he won the race.”

    It doesn’t follow that if one says they’ll support an
    opponent if they win that therefore the one doing so thinks the opponent is a
    “serious threat;” one can say the same thing for any number of
    reasons even when they privately know or believe the opponent is a weakling
    who’ll never touch them, let alone defeat them.

    “His conciliatory speech to a funeral gathering in
    Western on Saturday came as further evidence that, with only five months to the
    General Election, Mudavadi has emerged as Raila’s waking nightmare in the race
    for the presidency.”

    Not necessarily. I and others keenly following these events
    know or can identify one good reason why Raila said what he said but not
    necessary to disclose as that will be counter-productive.

    Let’s just say Mudavadi is not a “nightmare” in
    the race for Raila or ODM therefore Raila can’t be waking to such non-existent
    fact or thing.

    “That Raila considers Mudavadi a big threat to his
    presidential bid has been apparent ever since the former ODM comrades parted
    ways in April.”

    False. Some of us knew even long before Mudavadi started
    whining and finally left ODM that he was headed nowhere on his own, not even
    with the help of State House as is clearly evident and shall come to pass.

    “What is new on the map is just how serious this
    threat is deemed to be, and the extent to which the Raila political machine is
    prepared to go to clip the Sabatia legislator’s wings.”

    The Sabatia legislator has had no wings so there are no
    wings to clip, not by Raila or his political machine.

    The man has literally been carried all his life under the
    wings of someone else.

    Had he clung to Raila just a while longer until Raila at
    least served one term, he may have had a shot at finally flying on his own
    wings; he didn’t and his clinging to the State House/UK wings will soon prove
    to be a temporary thing as either or both let go and he comes crushing down, or
    the public simply rejects all of them leaving them nowhere to fly but south and
    under.

    “Raila’s statement was possibly the first time a
    senior ODM figure has admitted to the Mudavadi threat and was a departure from
    the party’s public dismissals of the UDF candidate as a small factor.”

    It’s a good thing you and others did not pick why Raila said
    what he did but I am sure he knows the message reached those it needed to but
    one would have to be politically adept to know that message was that Mudavadi
    is a threat to Raila or ODM, which he is not.

    Privately, however, much thought and planning has
    gone into countering Mudavadi.”

    Nothing startling here; it’s prudent to plan how to counter
    all opponents, weak or strong so not sure what the point here is.

    “The ODM strategy, revealed by insiders last week,
    revolves around two key planks: Weakening the United Democratic Front candidate
    in his Western Kenya home base, and encouraging Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru
    Kenyatta to go the whole hog in the presidential race.”

    Sounds like a good strategy to me.

    [quote] It is particularly interesting how, and why, the
    Raila machine is encouraging Uhuru to run.

    It all started with [b]doctored opinion polls[/b] showing
    that a run-off between the ODM candidate and Uhuru would result in an almost
    equal share of votes while a run-off against Mudavadi would tilt the results in
    Raila’s favour.”

    What evidence do you have that the Synovate poll which I
    assume you reference was doctored?

    “The truth of the matter, which has been confirmed
    by privately-conducted opinion polls for both ODM and TNA – the former recently
    commissioned a poll with a sample size of a whopping 47,000 respondents – is
    that Raila would easily beat Uhuru in a runoff while there is no possibility he
    can win against Mudavadi.”

    First of all, no idea which “privately conducted
    poll” you’re talking about and, if it’s ODM’s as you seem to suggest, then
    your assertion fails on its own for one because you cannot be privy to a
    “privately conducted poll” which by definition only insiders are
    privy to such data but based on what you’re writing here, you’re no ODM insider
    and neither have you sourced your knowledge of this sensitive data.

    “Raila’s strategy against Uhuru in a run-off,
    summarised in political circles as the “41 against 1 Plan”, and revolves around
    galvanizing all of Kenya against Uhuru on the basis that it is untenable for a
    Kikuyu to succeed another.”

    This is a classic mindless assertion. Does it follow that if
    “political articles” have “summarised” [sic] Raila’s
    strategy against Uhuru to be “the 41 against 1 plan” that therefore
    this is Raila’s strategy?

    Raila has made it clear that he is pursuing a 47-County
    campaign strategy, which means there is no part of the country he rules in or
    out in as far as his campaign is concerned.

    He’s certainly not pursuing no such thing as the “41
    Against 1” strategy which has been demonstrably made known to have been a
    concoction within the Kikuyu community by enemies of Raila and ODM in
    ill-conceived efforts to whip the Kikuyu vote and more against Raila and ODM,
    not that it was necessary to do so.

    “It is indeed very easy to whip up this mantra, even
    in the short time between the elections and the runoff.”

    The only people whipping up this mantra are people like you,
    not Raila or ODM for precisely the same reason it was in 2007 but people are
    more wiser now and nonsense like this will not fly.

    Raila will not be working so hard to woo the Kikuyu vote as
    he is if he were even remotely interested in such a divisive strategy and many
    of us who support him and believe in a united Kenya would not be a part of such
    a campaign strategy.

    “On the other hand, a widely known fact variously
    confirmed by every opinion poll and national intelligence report, is that
    Mudavadi is the one candidate most widely accepted across Kenya.”

    False. The more accurate and true statement is Mudavadi is
    the more accepted among the presidential contenders who see Raila as their
    roadblock to State House and ditto for most of the monied in the former Central
    or, if you will, the KSG schemers.

    “If the Kamba cannot have Kalonzo, then they would
    rather have MM, as he is commonly called.”

    False.

    “If the Kikuyu cannot have Uhuru, they can live with
    MM.”

    False.

    There are other serious contenders and alternatives to UK in
    Kikuyuland such as Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth who [i]most [/i]Kikuyus will
    vote for even if they are not on the ballot before they vote for MM.

    If UK chickens out and does not run, the Kikuyu a good chunk
    of the Kikuyu vote will go to whoever he endorses but an equally impressive
    number will go to his or her opponent, which shall be none other than RAO.

    Raila’s strategy is to simply peel off enough Kikuyu votes
    to make up for his losses elsewhere but all the same and consistent with his
    strategy to harvest impressive number of votes in all counties to be victorious
    in March 2013 and be sworn as our fourth president.

    “The same goes for the Kalenjin, the Taita, the Meru
    and everyone else.”

    So does my analysis above, namely, you take the kingpins in
    each of the communities out of the running, the alternative preference is not
    MM but a split all in favor of Raila.

    “Indeed, a recent Synovate research showed Mudavadi
    coming a strong second in virtually all regions, including Central, Eastern and
    Rift Valley, other than Western, where he was the leading candidate.”

    Again, no idea what survey you’re talking about but, the
    latest Synovate poll shows he only has a paltry 7% support nationwide, which means it’s irrelevant
    whether Mudavadi is first, second, third or tenth in regional polling for it’s
    the national poll that matters in the context of figuring who has a shot at
    meeting requisite carrying of 24 counties and winning 50% + 1 of the popular
    vote.

    Right now, Mudavadi has no shot in that equation.

    He only has a shot at shooting himself on the foot as he has
    all his life except this time he may have inflicted a mortal wound with his
    ill-advised departure from ODM to pursue a presidency under the doomed to fail
    State House/UK project he is.

    “And this is the reality that is giving the Raila team
    sleepless nights.”

    No it’s not.

    “The first hurdle towards having Uhuru on the ballot
    comes from The Hague, that small town in the Netherlands where the TNA leader,
    along with William Ruto, Francis Muthaura and Joshua Sang, will be tried over
    the Post Election Violence of 2008.”

    The Hague is no hurdle at all for either UK or Ruto to vie
    for the presidency.

    This is because there is no law that prevents either from
    vying and neither does ICC have jurisdiction to say whether they should or not.

    “Will Kenya’s increasingly activist courts allow him
    to run while facing these serious criminal charges?”

    Yes. Even activist courts must follow the law or at least
    purport to follow it.

    In this case, there is no law any court can cite as the
    basis to hold that either UK or Ruto is barred from vying.

    Indeed, even Chapter Six, which many cite in lay opinions
    doesn’t help because there is nothing in that Chapter that’s anywhere near on
    point even when subjected to tortured reading.

    The economic crimes law obviously does not apply so count on
    either or both UK and Ruto vying unless either or both chose to withdraw for
    reasons other than being told so by the courts.

    “Strategists at the Friends of Raila lobby group
    think there is a window of hope provided by Section 93 of the constitution
    which states that “A person is not disqualified (from contesting) under (2)
    unless all possibility of appeal or review of the relevant sentence or
    discussion has been exhausted.”

    As a matter of correction, the correct section is Section
    99(3), not 93.

    That being said, the argument FORA and others including
    yours truly have made here on this is valid and sound because this is part of
    what is called due process, which in turn is a part of the rule of law maxim.

    “This, they argue, gives some hope against the
    stringent demands of Chapter 6, the Leadership and Integrity chapter that many
    thought could be used to keep Uhuru from the ballot.”

    It’s not that FORA “hopes” that Section 99(3)
    applies to prevent a court from finding that neither UK nor Ruto can vie; it is
    actually the case and the law that that section stands in the way of
    application of both Article 99 and Chapter Six of the Constitution under these
    circumstances.

    “The Raila plan has also resulted in the flooding of
    the Western region with Cabinet positions in a bid to strengthen the anti-MM
    frontline troops, but this has not been without its own problems.”

    Can one be more liberal in the use of adjectives;
    “flooding?!

    Raila merely replaced Cabinet positions his party was
    entitled to; when does that become “flooding?!”

    “Although the recent appointments saw the number and
    profile of Luhya ministers increase, many people were peeved that the Banyala
    community got the bulk of the seats. Alfred Khang’ati and Ababu Namwamba are
    Banyala, as is Minister Fred Gumo.

    Why were Alfred Sambu and Sospeter Ojaamong overlooked?”

    I shudder to address this but let me just say I hope and
    pray there will come a time in Kenya where things are not always seen from a
    tribal or ethnic prism; we’ve got to learn and more importantly, we must teach
    our people to accept the reality of the new constitution that appointments must
    and shall be on the basis of merit with regional, not ethnic balance in mind.

    One cannot, obviously, discriminate against another on the
    basis of ethnicity, tribe, gender or any of the other protected classes.

    It therefore goes without saying even though political
    calculation had to be and must be out of necessity in the mix in these
    considerations, those whining about these appointments on the basis of what you
    claim are simply behind the times and need to catch up with where the rest of
    the country is headed.

    “A major plank in Raila’s Western Kenya strategy lies
    in Busia, where he starts with a slight advantage considering that more than 10
    percent of the population comprises Luos. That easily explains Namwamba and
    Otuoma’s good fortunes. They are both from Busia.”

    At the end of the day, people with ears and eyes on the
    ground tell us Raila stand to harvest nearly half, if not slightly more of the
    Luhya vote notwithstanding Mudavadi’s comatose performance there, let alone
    Wamalwa who is better advised to align with Raila.

    “Then enters presidential aspirant [b]Cyrus
    Jirongo[/b]. In an obvious throwback to the famous Moi tactics of splitting the
    enemy lines, Raila went ahead and sponsored Jirongo’s presidential bid, and did
    not even pretend he wasn’t involved. The launch, attended by key allies such as
    Namwamba, is intended to crowd the space for Mudavadi to weaken his home base.”

    Perfectly acceptable counter-strategy, given the other
    side’s doing the same thing in their own KSG featuring the Mudavadi project.

    “Raila is also understood to have sponsored
    [b]Charity Ngilu’s[/b] candidature in a bid to weaken Vice President Kalonzo
    Musyoka in Ukambani.”

    Not true but when has truth been in the way of conspiracy
    theorism?

    “Not surprisingly, whereas Mudavadi had to vacate
    his Local Government portfolio when he declared his candidature, Ngilu does not
    have to do the same. No one in ODM is asking her to do so.”

    Get your facts straight; Mudavadi resigned as minister
    because he left ODM to join UDF, not because he is running for president.

    Since you bring this up, why is Mudavadi clinging to DPM
    position when there is clearly no legal basis for him to do so?

    “Jirongo’s bid appears to have fallen flat and has
    had absolutely no effect in the Western Kenya politics.”

    No argument there.

    “Raila’s challenge in this election is unique.”

    So is everybody’s who is running.

    “Whereas in the past he has played the reformer card,
    pegged around the quest for a new constitution, that is no longer a valid card
    since the new laws are now with us. So what is his compelling agenda this time
    round?”

    Fully implementing the law but his opponents want to scuttle
    it.

    “For other contenders particularly Uhuru and Ruto,
    this election is about only one issue: the ICC.”

    True but not entirely true.

    Any of these individuals like any politician would like and
    do hope to be president for the sake of being president.

    They have no agenda for the country, alright, but they can
    and would like to be elected president beyond ICC consideration.

    “They would like the voting to be divided along the
    lines of who wants the four PEV suspects hanged in Europe, and who is willing
    to put up a fight for them.”

    If you casually follow what’s going on, you’ll note none of
    the politicians vying, including Raila, are calling for any of these
    individuals to be hanged at the Hague.

    This was a lie propagated by these fellows earlier on this
    year but was rejected by most Kenyans so they abandoned it.

    It would be to Raila’s advantage if they try to run on the
    same lie because there is an effective way to counter it beyond what has been
    done.

    “The battle lines are clear here. While Raila has
    stated several times that the four would be behind bars if it were up to him,”

    This is a gross misrepresentation at best and a bold lie at
    worst.

    Raila has never said such a thing.

    He did draw a comparison that if these ICC suspects were
    being charged for murder under Kenyan law, they’ll be behind bars awaiting
    trial.

    That’s a fact, not wishing that someone were behind bars if
    it was up-to Raila.

    Remember the context in which this was said was when these
    ICC suspects were going around the country conducting the so-called
    “prayer rallies” which were anything but; they were, in fact, efforts
    to saw seeds of discord they wisely abandoned upon Raila and others calling
    them out, including the ICC that made it known they risked being arrested for
    violating their conditions of release.

    “Kalonzo has been equally unequivocal in his campaign
    for the four not to go to the Hague, even though many have doubted his real
    intentions.”

    Does anyone really care what Kalonzo says or does?

    “Indeed, Kalonzo’s willingness to fight the Hague
    monster partly explains why Ruto appears to give him his time of day.”

    Not true.

    See the immediately above.

    “There were reports last week that the two, along
    with APK’s Kiraitu Murungi, who is fed up with Uhuru’s increasingly
    overconfident and often arrogant stance, were about to agree to a pre-election
    pact.”

    Nothing wrong with that.

    If Kalonzo brings Raila only his one vote, that might as
    well be the +1 vote Raila needs to clinch the presidency.

    If he doesn’t join Raila, the vote can either be discounted
    or replaced by another voter.

    “The Raila brigade is not particularly worried
    about Kalonzo, even with Ruto and Kiraitu on his side: He is considered to be
    the wimp of Kenya political class and unlikely to reach the run-off stage.”

    True.

    “On the other hand Mudavadi’s statements during his
    recent US tour in response to reporters’ questions clearly defined his position
    on the issue.”

    “In his clearest stand yet on the Hague trials he said:

    “We killed each other in 2008. Women were raped; children
    were molested. It would be cowardly to wish this away. We must accept
    responsibility collectively. The nation is guilty. To prosecute four people for
    the sins of 40 million people is therefore preposterous. The four carry our
    national shame, but they must not carry our national guilt. We must all own
    up.”

    This is a politically inept statement for a number of
    reasons:

    First, it confirms that Mudavadi is a State House/UK
    project.

    Having been mum all these years the ICC cases have been
    brewing, he cannot suddenly start blabbing about it now.

    The only and obvious reason he would do so and is doing so
    is simply to align himself with the State House/UK interests when it comes to
    the ICC.

    Second, it’s is simply not the case that all Kenyans are
    responsible for the deadly violence that took place in early 2008.

    I know I was not and so were not most Kenyans.

    The PEV was perpetuated by individuals representing a tiny
    portion of the population and the ICC has chosen charge those it found to be
    the most responsible to account for the violence.

    This claim by Mudavadi is not clever because it exposes
    Mudavadi as one willing to say or do anything for the sake of those who are
    propping him up for the presidency, which in turn confirms what others observe
    and say that he is not his own man.

    Third, because Mudavadi has condemned both the innocent and
    the guilty of the crimes that took place in 2008, he can now forget getting any
    votes from the innocent on this account, who are, in fact, nearly everyone.

    What Mudavadi has done here is no different from what Mitt
    Romney, the man now with an uphill task to beat President Obama in the run for
    the US presidency, thanks in part for his recently discovered video in which he
    is surreptitiously recorded dismissing half of America as basically a bunch of
    freeloaders.

    Just as half of those Americans Mitt derided will now not
    vote for him for sure, even if most of them were not going to vote for him,
    anyway, so too will Mudavadi not get the votes of those he now accuses to be
    murderers, rapists and looters when they are not and never have been.

    Finally, by this assertion, Mudavadi clearly shows that he
    doesn’t understand the rule of law maxim and holding people responsible for
    actions committed that are against society rules.

    Even in a situation where there is mass violations of the
    law, such as in riots where property is destroyed or people injured, etc, it’s
    imprudent and impractical to haul everyone to court.

    Rather, the police zero-in on the most culpable and arrest
    them while the rest of the rioters are chased away or simply take off.

    True in that case everyone on the streets rioting can be
    said to have been collectively responsible for the damage of property or injury
    to others that takes place but it doesn’t follow that therefore we either
    arrest and charge all of them or do nothing.

    That logic doesn’t fly at all and thus the reason this
    assertion by Mudavadi is (let me not use a word that comes to mind) out of
    respect for the people of Sabatia.

    “Political observers see the race for the presidency
    taking a more definite shape in the next one month or so as the flurry of
    defections and realignments is concluded. [color=Red][b]Raila’s claims that
    this is going to be a two-horse race, between him and Uhuru, is seen by
    observers as another effort to discourage Mudavadi and cheer Uhuru
    on.”

    The fact is, this is a race between two opponents: Raila v
    Everyone Else (EE).

    Someone shall be declared winner come March 4 and the money
    is on that person being Raila.

    “Whether this strategy works or not remains to be
    seen.”

    As noted above, the battle is between Raila and EE.

    Besides, he’s on the record saying the more the merrier.

    May the best candidate win.

    His Excellency President Raila Amolo Odinga.

    Let’s practice these majestic words, shall we?

    • @Samuel N. Omwenga: Obviously, like your friend Kuria, you only brought one hell of long wording to merely parrot your idol’s assumptions, if not outright deception! But even a fool in any corner of the country knows that Raila’s presidential bid aborted long long time ago. Your dismissive attitude towards other presidential candidates, too mirrors pretty well that of Mr. Kuria. I guess, Kenyans will be very suspicious of that unholy alliance marked by insulting empty arrogance.
      You and Kuria must umderstand that Kenyans are alot wiser than ever before. They know when tribal fingers are pointed out, they lead to no where. They also know that any Uhuru or Raila win might even be recipe for chaos. Thats simply because the two are driven by seemingly drunken tribal fanatics who would ignite violence at the slightest excuse. Needless to say, 2007/8 PEV was ignited by same same tribal factors.
      Contemptuous bloated tribalism is far worse than poison pals. Infact, calling brother VP Kalonzo “wimp of Kenya political class” is meant to fuel that tribal contempt. Deriding our brothers for purpose of political mischief is totally unfortunate and uncalled for. By the way, when did he become a wimp and how? Was it only after he fell out with PM Raila? It should be remembered that Raila was actually idolizing Kalonzo before he lost Odm-Kenya to him. Infact, he was at one point paraded as the best presidential candidate for Raila’s LDP party! So, does anyone who falls out with Raila instantly become a different person and all sorts of names? Certainly you and brother Kuria are ready consumers of lies and twisted facts by merchants of deceit.
      As it stands now, the only presidential candidate that can acceptable across the board, is no other than brother VP Kalonzo Musyoka. Infact, I suspect that all these name-callings and ridicule are mere futile attempts meant to change that fact. Tribal misfits have been on overdrive to cast aspersions on the person of the VP. Even push forward for supposed brother Uhuru’s supposed “merit” to run for presidency not as a Kikuyu, is coated with alot of our normal Kikuyuism! What we forget is that we cant pursue tribal politics and expect to be treated differently when it comes to presidency.
      One thing that baffles me is near comical way guys approach issues in our central Kenya. Our selfish tribalism is so shamelessly glaring and still, we want to be taken seriously. You cant be so easily driven by propaganda spewed by opponent and still pretend to be serious. You cant be receiving only your village folks in the name of defectors, in full glare TV cameras, and still manage to claim that your village piece is pretty national! We are supposed to have devested ourselves from tribalism long time ago. In the present circumstances, Kenyasns are certainly not going to elect president another Kikuyu whether we like it or not. Nonetheless, whats clear is that once reality dawns on some of us, we might head straight to poison bottle!

      • @facebook-100000996986819:disqus, why have you not addressed any of the substantive issues I raised in my piece but have spent a lot of time discussing things I did not address at all or accusing me of “parroting” my “idol” and even deception without any proof or reference to what I have said that is deceptive, which is irrelevant and ineffective in debate, respectively? Also, I have many friends named Kuria, which one are you talking about and why is he relevant in an article I did not address anything he has said about any of what I have said, if at all? FYI, when responding to an article, and to avoid mixing up issues and confusing people trying to follow the discussion, kindly limit yourself to the issues raised in the article and avoid the temptation to drag and address other people’s arguments in the same article. I didn’t say anything about Kalonzo being a “whimp of the Kenya political class” so did I not say anything about all these things you discuss in your rebuttal. What is comical if it weren’t dangerous is you have set up a straw man argument regarding the use of language tending to stoke violence, which I have not but you have, actually done just that in the pretense you’re condemning that which I have not said! You’re obviously rooting for Kalonzo, which is fine but you and he would have to do better than this to overcome the great odds stacked against him he cannot blame anyone but himself.

        • @Samuel N. Omwenga: I guess, you wrote such a long thing that you forgot what you wrote! I certainly support brother VP Kalonzo Musyoka and has no qualms about it. Its interesting you insist that you never said this or that, but still manage to repeat your derisions against the VP! By the way, what odds are “stacked” against him? I hope you surely dont mean being called names by those who fear you are odds! And certainly, you cant be telling us that his decency and avoiding corruption are odds?Kenyans can clearly see the emptiness in those who parade wickedness to win votes. They know guys who have no bearings have resorted to claiming that there were people “opposed” to new constitution, merely to find something to hold on to. Otherwise, without smearing others, they are as stagnant as water in a drum! And my friend, NO SINGLE KENYAN WAS OPPOSED TO NEW CONSTITUTION. NO-CAMP ONLY WANTED AMENDMENTS BEFORE PASSAGE WHILE THE OTHER LOT WANTED SAME AFTER PASSAGE!!!!

  • but do you know that musalia will arrest kibaki and uhuru..i mean he will hand them over to hague..?

    • @Okiosk Long: Exactly! Mudavadi has learned to hide himself within himself to get votes. His take is that we are to gullible. Thats why he is saying PEV was work of all Kenyans! He thinks that cheapness will win brothers Hon. Ruto and Hon. Uhuru to his side!

  • doreen

    “It all started with doctored opinion polls showing that a run-off
    between the ODM candidate and Uhuru would result in an almost equal
    share of votes while a run-off against Mudavadi would tilt the results
    in Raila’s favour.”…………give us facts on this,dates,sample sizes,firm doing the doctoring!

    • @doreen: He who pays the piper calls the tune! Thus, all of them are cheats! Why are they not following the law? They are not disclosing who they polled, respective parties and more important, the paymaster. Do you know what happened to a Mr. George Watitu and Tom? Who told you managing directorship changes hands like shirts? Its all about confusing Kenyans. Watitu and Ireri MDship was/is likely to be believed in Mt. Kenya and large parts of Eastern regions. Mr. Tom Wolf was mere credibility item. But when people realized that his thinking had not only been influenced by Raila people at some sisal estates, but also his purported association with Steadman polling firm of USA was fake, credility purpose became untenable.

  • doreen

    “The truth of the matter, which has been confirmed by privately-conducted
    opinion polls for both ODM and TNA – the former recently commissioned a
    poll with a sample size of a whopping 47,000 respondents – is that
    Raila would easily beat Uhuru in a runoff while there is no possibility
    he can win against Mudavadi.”………….and you are privy to this coz you work for them

    • @doreen: I guess you have monopoly of truth. I dont buy fake polls pal! Gullibles can do that. The bottomline is that none of these so called pollsters adhere to the rules. Secondly, 47,000 people for given sample are too many. It requires enormous amount of resources to poll such a number. I doubt any of the outfits has such resources. Those fake pollsters are there to say what their masters want! Brothers Uhuru and Mudavadi cant beat PM Raila because of their clouded past. They can only nearly win when they are backed by majority of other candidates. And thats why they are being put in the lead. The idea is to make them believe they are popular, when in reality that might not be the case. Tribalism would be ceaselessly and effectively used against brother Uhuru. On the hand, brother Mudavadi would be dismissed as Kikuyu extension. Remember the project tag, what does that say? I have said again and again that PM Raila knows pretty well the people he can beat without any problem at all. And he surely knows how to parade them!!!!

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