“It is possible that the new government will find a level of stability that the increasingly isolated Muslim Brotherhood leadership was unable to sustain in the face of rising disputes with the former coalition partners and an obstructionist judiciary,” it said.
But “mounting demographic and economic pressures” mean the country’s new leaders will face economic challenges “that become incrementally more difficult with each passing year”.
Egypt is the Arab world’s most populous nation, and has witnessed an astonishing 50 percent rise in its population since 1990.
Last year it hit 84 million, “one in four of whom live below the poverty line and only survive thanks to subsidised wheat”, according to agricultural expert Sebastien Poncelet.
Egypt imports about 10 million tonnes of wheat annually, with its own production supplying less than half of demand, which was 18 million tonnes in 2012.
The acute shortage of foreign currency has hampered imports over the past six months, so financial aid from the Gulf will help Cairo cover its cost in the short term.
But to be able to supply cheap bread, a key ingredient in maintaining social stability, “the economy must be able to generate sustainable income over the long term,” said Galal.
