New survey gives President Kenyatta a 12-point lead over archrival Odinga

June 8, 2017 3:58 pm
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According to the survey, the main Opposition candidate – Raila Odinga – who will be flying the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party flag under the banner of the National Super Alliance (NASA) follows with 39 per cent in a poll where 8.6 per cent of the respondents sampled said they were undecided/FILE

, NAIROBI, Kenya, Jun 8 – President Uhuru Kenyatta is leading the race to State House at 51.7 per cent according to a new study released on Thursday by the African Electoral Observation Group.

According to the survey, the main Opposition candidate – Raila Odinga – who will be flying the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party flag under the banner of the National Super Alliance (NASA) follows with 39 per cent in a poll where 8.6 per cent of the respondents sampled said they were undecided.

Another 0.7 per cent of the 1,880 respondents interviewed between May 23 and 26 said they would vote for any presidential candidate other than Kenyatta and Odinga.

The data which was collected through a standardized questionnaire, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and In Depth Interviews (IDIs) placed the voter turnout at 89 per cent with 7 per cent of respondents saying they will not show up to vote on August 8.

Three per cent of the respondents said they were undecided whether they will vote with one per cent polling “I don’t know”.

In the interviews which covered 54 per cent male respondents and 46 per cent female respondents, 28 per cent said they will boycott the General Elections should NASA do so, sixty per cent saying they would go ahead and vote.

Twelve per cent of those who participated in the poll were not sure if they would either vote or abstain in the event that NASA withdraws from the August contest.

Sixty-two per cent of the respondents said they were motivated to vote because on their urge to change the issues affecting them locally, sixteen per cent saying they were interested in change at the national level.

Fourteen per cent of those sampled said they were going to participate in the election because of pressure from their community, five per cent because it is going to be their first time to vote, and three per cent because they are affiliated to a particular candidate.

Among those who said they would boycott the election if the Opposition withdrew from the presidential election, 42 per cent were from Odinga’s backyard in Nyanza, 18 per cent from Musalia Mudavadi’s – a NASA principal – home turf, and 21 per cent from Kalonzo Musyoka’s – NASA Presidential Running mate – political bedrock.

Two and four per cent of respondents from – Uhuru Kenyatta’s and William Ruto’s strongholds of Central and Rift Valley regions respectively said they will keep off the elections if NASA quits.

Most of those who took part in the survey had professed some level of education; 69 per cent having gone through secondary education, 26 per cent post secondary, while four per cent said they had no education at all.

On average, those who participated in the poll were 33-year-old; 18.3 per cent aged between 40-49 years old, 38.8 per cent 30-39, 6.8 per cent 50-59, 2.3 per cent 60-69 and 33.5pc 18- 29 years old.

Majority of participants – 58 per cent – said they were either self-employed or employed while 42 per cent said they were unemployed.

66 per cent of the respondents on overall said they earned below Sh10,000 per month, 31 per cent earning between Sh10,000 and Sh50,000 per month.

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