Ipsos poll shows Uhuru-Ruto neck and neck with NASA

May 30, 2017 (5 weeks ago) 12:04 pm
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The research released Tuesday morning shows that 47 per cent will vote for President Uhuru Kenyatta while 42 per cent will vote for Raila Odinga/FILE

, NAIROBI, Kenya, May 30 – A new study conducted by IPSOS shows that President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto enjoy support from 48 per cent of registered voters compared to opposition leader Raila Odinga and his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka who polled at 42 per cent.

The study conducted between May 11 and 23 also indicates that 39 per cent of respondents who are not registered voters preferred to vote for President Kenyatta with Odinga seemingly appearing to have the majority of his supporters – 48 per cent – who are not registered voters pledging allegiance to him.

The survey released by IPSOS Research Analyst Tom Wolf, indicates that 90 per cent of supporters of the Jubilee Party would rally behind their presidential candidate, 4 per cent of party supporters sampled saying they would back Odinga.

Among Odinga’s supporters, the poll indicates that 89 per cent are backing his election with five per cent of the sampled population allied to the National Super Alliance (NASA) affiliate parties indicating they would back President Kenyatta’s re-election.

“We could say that if we compare all the registered voters at least as they reported to us in the study, that a higher percentage of those who support Jubilee got registered as voters than NASA supporters,” Wolf said while releasing the findings of the study with a sample size of 2,026 and a margin of error of +/- 2.18 per cent.

The poll, with a degree of confidence of 95 per cent also indicates that Kenyans are divided on the president’s performance with 49 per cent of those sampled disapproving it compared to 46 per cent who expressed approval.

Among Jubilee Party supporters however the balance is tilted in favour the President who scored 74 per cent in approval ratings. Twenty-two per cent of party loyalists disapproved the performance of the party’s presidential candidate in the August General Election.

Among NASA diehards, only 17 per cent of Kenyans are confident with the performance of President Kenyatta since he ascended to power in March 2013, 79 per cent expressing dissatisfaction.

Asked why the number of opposition supporters registered during the Mass Voter Registration exercise appeared to be lower compared to their Jubilee counterparts, Wolf said the anti-electoral commission sentiments by opposition figures could have lead to lower turnout in its strongholds.

“When the opposition leaders were demanding reform of the IEBC and making accusations about collusion with Jubilee, perhaps most of their supporters stayed away because they did not believe IEBC would produce an honest result,” he said.

President Kenyatta however remains the person who inspires a lot of confidence from with 40 per cent of respondents saying they had confidence in him.

Deputy President William Ruto follows in the second position at 31 per cent, Odinga (25 per cent) and Kalonzo Musyoka 12 per cent.

Cumulatively, the National Government inspires more confidence according to the poll at 31 per cent followed by opposition at 18 per cent.

On political parties’ affiliation, those 45 per cent of those sampled pledged allegiance to Jubilee Party, 41 per cent to NASA allied parties and 2 per cent to other parties.

JP enjoys overwhelming support in Central, Rift Valley, North Eastern and Eastern regions at 86, 62, 59 and 53 per cent respectively with NASA enjoying 6, 27, 30 and 36 per cent of support.

NASA according to the study enjoys significant support in Nairobi, Coast, Western and Nyanza regions at 53, 52, 64 and 78 per cent with JP claiming 37, 24, 16 and 12 per cent of the vote basket in the four regions.

Only 51 per cent of the supporters however feel political parties represent their interests. 35 per cent according to the study disagreed, 13 per cent saying they were not sure.

JP however enjoys support from majority of it supporters – 57 per cent – in as far as championing for their interests is concerned. 30 per cent of supporters were found to be in disagreement with their counterparts.

When asked the same question; whether or not their party genuinely represents the interests of ordinary Kenyans, 51 per cent of NASA supporters said their parties represent the interests of Kenyans. 37 per cent disagreed.

The research released Tuesday morning shows that 47 per cent will vote for President Uhuru Kenyatta while 42 per cent will vote for Raila Odinga/FILE
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