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South Sudan rebel chief Riek Machar arrives in Juba

– ‘Best chance yet’ –

Diplomats note gloomily that while Machar’s return is the “best chance yet”, the deal imposed under intense international pressure only sees the country go back to the status quo that existed before his July 2013 sacking as vice president that precipitated the war.

The agreement has already been repeatedly broken with months of fighting since it was signed, and its key power sharing formula in ruins after Kiir nearly tripled the number of regional states.

The fighting erupted in December 2013 when Kiir accused Machar of plotting a coup.

The conflict has included the abduction and rape of thousands of women and girls, massacres of civilians, recruitment of child soldiers, murder, mutilation and even cannibalism.

South Sudan is one of poorest countries on the planet, and had some world’s worst indicators for development, health and education even before over two years of war.

Machar has over 1,500 armed troops in the capital, while government forces have officially just over double that.

All other soldiers have to remain at least 25 kilometres (15 miles) outside the capital.

The threat of violence at a local level remains enormous, with multiple militia forces unleashed and out of control.

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Machar and Kiir are decades-old rivals and even if they can work together both must also rein in powerful hardline field commanders.

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