– Bloodied but victorious –
With corruption scandals, poor public services and a cratering economy the ANC will emerge from the election victorious but bruised.
Low turnout is likely to inflate the ANC’s share of the vote, which is likely to fall for a second consecutive election.
Former stalwarts like Ronnie Kasrils, a leading ANC veteran, have gone so far as to publicly ask voters not to back the party that delivered them from the white-minority rule of the apartheid era. READ: Zuma allies tapped to lead ANC electoral list.
Both the DA and Julius Malema’s firebrand Economic Freedom Fighters are likely to continue to tap into voters’ anger that 20 years of democracy have not improved their lot.
South Africa remains one of the most unequal on earth and sees an estimated 30 demonstrations a day against appalling public services.
An ANC leadership battle may also be in the offing.
Under South Africa’s constitution, Zuma’s second term would be his last and he risks becoming a lame duck as would-be successors jockey for position ahead of a 2017 elective party conference.
Zuma’s promise of more action to redistribute economic power away from the white elite, is unlikely to inspire investors already rattled by social unrest and more populist rhetoric.
Malema’s party is expected to get around five percent of the vote at its first attempt after promising to nationalise industry and give poor blacks land currently owned by whites.
“A lower-than-expected majority for the ANC would probably be regarded positively by markets, as it may jolt the party into reforming itself internally over the coming years,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics.
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