Poll: Raila-Kalonzo will beat Uhuru-Ruto

December 14, 2012 3:15 pm


The polls shows 47pc would vote for Raila-Kalonzo while 41pc would vote for Uhuru-Ruto/CFM-File
NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec 14 – An opinion poll by Ipsos Synovate shows that 47 percent of Kenyans would vote for a Raila Odinga-Kalonzo Musyoka ticket while 41 percent would vote for Uhuru Kenyatta-William Ruto pairing.

The survey results released on Friday indicate that 12 percent of those polled are still undecided.

The poll conducted between December 6 and 11 further suggests an Odinga-Musyoka ticket attracted 48 percent support against a Mudavadi-Ruto ticket which would garner 38 percent, with 14 percent of those polled saying they were undecided.

“We’ve seen the alliances since we last polled in November. Last time we didn’t have them but they have not been marketed yet especially in areas that have lost their own potential presidential candidates such as Mudavadi in Western… there is a lot of uncertainty here. People don’t know what the final menu is and this give us something to watch very carefully for next Tuesday,” Researcher Tom Wolf said during a briefing held at the pollster’s office in Nairobi.

The poll comes days before both the Coalition for Reform and Restoration of Democracy (CORD) and the Jubilee Alliance make major pronouncements on the presidential candidates and running mates ahead of the March 4, 2013 General Elections.

CORD is expected to announce who between Odinga and Musyoka will be its flag bearer at a political rally to be held at the historic Uhuru Park on December 22.

The Jubilee Alliance is on Monday expected to carry out a primary poll pitting Kenyatta of The National Alliance against Mudavadi of the United Democratic Forum. Eldoret North MP William Ruto will be the running mate, whatever the outcome.

Meanwhile, the poll shows the individual popularity rating for Odinga rose by a percentage point since November to 34 percent, Kenyatta dropped a point to stand at 27 percent, and Mudavadi gained one point to settle at 5 percent.

The ratings for Musyoka and Ruto recorded a drop since November with the vice president’s rating going from 8 percent to 3 percent while the Eldoret North MP saw his fortunes drop from 9 percent to 2 percent.

The undecided voters rose from 12 percent to 22 percent, according to the IPSOS Synovate poll.

Wolf said they were concerned that the number of undecided voters has almost doubled since November, a matter he attributed to political realignments which mean voters are more baffled.

“When people have been hoping that their favourite candidate will actually be their presidential candidate and then it becomes clear they are not going to be, it may take them sometime before they decide who they are going to vote for. That’s why I am not surprised that the undecided has gone up so much,” he explained.

Western (32 percent) and Coast (33 percent) had the highest percentage of undecided voters in the poll that was conducted through computer aided telephone interviews targeting 1,625 respondents.

The Jubilee Alliance and CORD enjoyed equal support in Eastern and Nairobi at 44 percent and 45 percent respectively.

CORD enjoys more support in Nyanza (76 percent), Western (63 percent) and North Eastern (50 percent) while Jubilee enjoys support in the Rift Valley and Central accounting for 48 percent and 69 percent respectively.


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