Raila crushes rivals in latest opinion poll

, NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug 15 – The latest opinion poll shows that Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s popularity rating is still ahead of all the other presidential aspirants, if elections were held today.

The survey which was conducted by Nakuru-based Smart Octopus Limited shows that Mr Odinga is ahead of the pack at 26 percent, although he has slightly dropped by two points since another poll in March.

“We have been seeing realignment especially in the ODM party.  You’ve seen the shift by William Ruto to UDM; this could be analogies to the story in Chinua Achebe’s Things fall Apart where we had the tall trees and it had the feathers of a bird. Maybe the birds are now plucking the feathers away… that is the only reason we could attribute to the decline of Mr Odinga,” Smart Octopus MD Samuel Chege said.

Mr Chege said Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta has maintained his 23 percent rating while suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka are gainers after each registered a five percent improvement to stand at 19 and 16 percent respectively.

Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa is at six percent.

Newcomer Ben Mulwa got four percent largely attributed to his support on the social media sites, where he has been running his campaign.

Narc-Kenya Chairperson Martha Karua scored three percent in the poll.

Mr Chege said the poll results show that a 2012 runoff is imminent, since there is no candidate who will be able to garner the constitutional threshold of 50 percent +1 of all votes cast and more than 25 percent of votes in majority of the counties in round one of presidential election.

And if a run off was to be held in the polls, the survey shows that Mr Kenyatta will beat Mr Odinga with 52 to 37 percent.

The poll shows that Mr Musyoka is the best placed candidate in the G-7 political alliance to face the Prime Minister as he would floor him by 64 percent to 28 percent.

The poll further say 72 percent of Kenyans don’t think there will be an election next year.

Mr Chege said: “We have the issue of logistics, because as of now we are yet to see the formation of the necessary institutions that will be conducting those elections, in spite of Parliament trying to enact the laws, most Kenyans think we will not be ready by August 14, 2012.”

The poll also suggests that a majority of Kenyans believe that the charges against the Ocampo Six will not be confirmed by the ICC.  William Ruto, Henry Kosgey and Joshua arap Sang are due to appear before the court from September 1, while the second batch of hearings for confirmation of charges for the remaining trio of Uhuru Kenyatta, Francis Muthaura and Hussein Ali will commence on September 21.

The study established that the corporate and private sector and individuals are rated highly for their response to the hunger and famine affecting parts of the country.

The civil society had the worst response to the drought situation.

  • Anonymous

    Wonders never cease. survey group comes up with its figures to influence the electorate and drum up support for Uhuru Project 2. Eti Octupus Limited, Octopus kitu gani hata haina website. Chege,This is no soccer prediction!

  • Eggy

    Haaaa……..Opinion polls from Nakuru???I will be doing mine from Todonyang……or in Ugunja….washenzi hawa….Raila is the president

  • Aptbks

    Rubbish!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DL4VIT5NF222XO5UAG77XZ5HZ4 samuel

    hahahha wewe una sema eti Raila wil be President of kenyan are you sick,mybe wa Kisumu But not kenya ,Ruto is next Prezzo

    • Aptbks

      No this thing is 4 Uhuru’s, with statehouse maybe somewhere in Prague n Ruto Vp but operating from Nairobi’s StateHouse. i like this prospects. 2012 ifika haraka!

    • Nazzir

      You are the sickest being on planet earth!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DL4VIT5NF222XO5UAG77XZ5HZ4 samuel

    hahahha wewe una sema eti Raila wil be President of kenyan are you sick,mybe wa Kisumu But not kenya ,Ruto is next Prezzo

  • Gordon Opiyo

    Now Capital FM, what happened to your quality control systems? You just do not give any Tom Dick and Chege airtime and space, have you done any background checks? Very disappointed in you, CapitalFM

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DL4VIT5NF222XO5UAG77XZ5HZ4 samuel

    Chenge You are right ,Those saiy Ruto and  uhuru  they don,t have support ,let tel you guys we are here,

  • Aptbks

    Ha,    Ben Mulwa????? is ahead of Martha Karua.

    • Nazzir

      Imagine that!

  • Kinyua

    ati Opinion polls from Nakuru? These are the works of Uhuru and Ruto, op they paid that Chege well for his ‘good’ work!

  • http://www.facebook.com/KamauGatwechi Gavana Kamau Gatwechi

    Smart Octopus MD Samuel Chege if a run off was to be held in the polls, the survey shows that Mr Kenyatta will beat Mr Odinga with 52 to 37 percent.The poll shows that Mr Musyoka is the best placed candidate in the G-7 political alliance to face the Prime Minister as he would floor him by 64 percent to 28 percent. I wish this was true but Bw Octopus chege Fanya Hesabu Tena something isnt adding up……………………Raila can’t be bitten by Kalonzo besides in a RUNOFF BETWEEN UHURU AND RAILA ABOVE WHERE IS THE 11% BOY WE CANT HAVE OVER 10% SPOILT VOTES

  • http://www.facebook.com/KamauGatwechi Gavana Kamau Gatwechi

    Smart Octopus MD Samuel Chege if a run off was to be held in the polls, the survey shows that Mr Kenyatta will beat Mr Odinga with 52 to 37 percent.The poll shows that Mr Musyoka is the best placed candidate in the G-7 political alliance to face the Prime Minister as he would floor him by 64 percent to 28 percent. I wish this was true but Bw Octopus chege Fanya Hesabu Tena something isnt adding up……………………Raila can’t be bitten by Kalonzo besides in a RUNOFF BETWEEN UHURU AND RAILA ABOVE WHERE IS THE 11% BOY WE CANT HAVE OVER 10% SPOILT VOTES

    • http://profiles.google.com/gkimega Godfrey Kimega

      If there were a run-off between Raila and Kalonzo, Kalonzo could win because he appears “safe”, compared to Raila.

      • Anonymous

        In addition to Godfrey’s reply to Gavana, the issue of the 11% voters who do not feature in the run-off sampling is not necessarily spoilt votes, it could be people who didn’t respond to the question during the survey for any number of reasons including some who would not vote for Raila, Uhuru or Kalonzo!

  • Aptbks

    I second that Sam. Lets enjoy the feeling while it last!

  • Sharp

    Laban, unfortunately its not only the content of your piece that sounds like ‘qwack’ work but even your writing here is hard to follow and littered with grammatical errors “The study established that the corporate and private sector and individuals are rated highly…………….”  the repeated use of the joining word AND – c’mon surely!! 
    anywho RAO is taking this without a fuss in 2012, I resigned to that fact and started seeing the positives in the man. To be objective, he deserves it more than any other so called candidate. His record as a reformist and in the struggle to liberate this country from poor leadership is impeccable in comparison to the other fellows. 
    Mr Chege – we will not have any run-off please.

  • Kioko kilema

    What shody journalism is this?

  • Ukweli

    Who wants to bet Raila Odinga’s opinion poll companies Strategic Research and the other one for Angela Ambitho will come up with a poll within the next 2 weeks showing Raila at 99.9% of the vote?

    Except for Synovate and TNS East Africa which have to adhere to codes of conduct from their overseas head offices, all these locally owned opinion pollsters are GHASIA because they are owned and funded by politicians.

    • Arap Kibaki881

      26% does NOT crash 23% if you factor in margin of error

    • Nazzir

      I can bet on that one. All these opinion polls you are calling Raila’s having been putting him on a downfall in ratings lately.

  • Chuck Norris

    I don’t like the way some Kenyans who are send their comments are showing hatred to others. Can’t we just respect other’s point of views???

  • Chuck Norris

    I don’t like the way some Kenyans who are send their comments are showing hatred to others. Can’t we just respect other’s point of views???

  • Fangisep

    something’s telling me that this smart octopus group is someones project…I smell rats in this Nakuru based weird named opinion poll group, readying itself for use as someone’s propaganda tool as the elections draw closer!

  • Newluk

    The website doese  not exist same to the phone numbers , these guys are just hired goons . HOW could these pass as news????????????????????????????????

  • Nazzir

    Ati Ben who? has beaten Martha Karua attributed to his support in social media sites where he’s been running his campaigns. I am the social network guru and unfortunately I’ve never met this Mulwa guy. On social networks sites there are guys who run serious campaigns and they feature nowhere in this stupid octopus thing!

  • Smarter Octpy

    Smart indeed! Smart Octopus, what a name! Is this a registered company? Do they have employees? Where in Nakuru are there offices? Are they TAX payers? Who is Mulwa? Shame on media houses who give such people airtime at the expense of development issues. Tell us about IDP’s in London and if we can donate beans, cooking oil and if they have enough tents. What rubbish Kenyan media has become. Anybody can walk into our media house and present them with rubbish and they publish! 

  • Mmas

    we don’t want such parochial, unknown, unscientific and pseudo partisan conclaves to confuse the public with such dubious so called opinion polls. We’ve seen very consistent opinion polls from well revered companies like synovate and strategic research. Who had ever heard of Smart Octopus, this is a mere manipulation, believe me!  

  • Otyguyz2000

    Funda, what the F**K is all this posted here am off Capital FM website never to be seen again. You have gone gutter press.

  • Paul

    I think there is an error here…Mr. Kalonzo Musyoka is at 19% and Mr. William Ruto at 16%…please capital news reporters correct that.

  • http://profiles.google.com/gkimega Godfrey Kimega

    26% rating can hardly be described as “a crushing of rivals.” In most other countries, anything less than 40% is regarded as a poor showing. 

  • mkenyamzalendo

    a think octopus tutakudish tu go back to static class 

  • Denno

    We are past April so this must be August Fools day??

  • Jmuinde

    Why are you faulting the Smart Octopus..??? We all need to wake up and realize gone are time we used to follow our political leaders blindly.Also if at all u have to comment, u don’t need to use abusive language,respect the opinion of other people.Lets stop the hatred we was in 2007-08,Those politicians are eating together and have IDPS in camps up to  date.Whether it will be RAILA, KALONZO, RUTO, UHURU just him or her , Kenya must go on…..

  • keriakoh

    Apparently its all about beating raila the giant.why do pple panic cant raila make a gd president,here in nairobi 80% believe raila will be sworn in as the 4th president of this country.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_DXTRP6K4I6GRCZJYYIYG2PTUXY Yori Bracket

    The only opinion poll I will ever trust is Gallup – check it at least 2 weeks before any event. Always spot on! Including 2007 Kenya elections. Predicted 45% Kibaki and 43% Raila. Turned out to be true much to the chagrin of the odomo’s who have all since realised their agent of change is not changeable after all!

  • Patriot

    smart octopus!! It is very stupid and saddening to see how young people have become sell out to their country. The poll result appears dubious even to a person who lacks basic statistic competence. Fanya siasa en serve your masters we understand times thus this may be a creative way of getting ugali on the table. However, wachana na mambo ya Ocampo, since we all know majority of Kenyans want Justice and end of impunity.

  • Tphilip30

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahah

  • Tphilip30

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahah

  • Baijo

    Simply put, Project Uhuru is gaining ground!
    Project Kalonzo in G7 will win hands down!
    Which is which…call a spade a spade tell people the facts

  • Latonesha

    Ati Ruto at 19%?? Thats a bad joke! How will anyone vote for Ruto while he will be caged up in the Hague the way Mubarak was done while standing trial in Egypt? Laban, you have messed up my day!!!

  • Baijo

    Dear Octopus!
    What about Kamukunji and Kitutu Masaba…who is crushing who??
    I believe you are not only limited to Nakuru opinions…at 26%!!!

  • Petermichael

     the opinion poll of yesterday by octopus was so very bogus

  • Petermichael

     the opinion poll of yesterday by octopus was so very bogus

  • Francis kakui

    ur poll is lower class workout

  • Francis kakui

    ur poll is lower class workout

  • Fredyguess

    bure kabisa you think kenyans are stupid.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_TFHA7TXSOW5JXML3JHGOXDLN2U chris

    how is 26% versus 23% for Uhuru described as Raila crushing his opponents.Raila’s popularity is bleeding slowly and at this rate he should be well below 10% before August 2012.Raila will never be President of Kenya.

  • Levymisaro

     from the name itself its utter nonsense! raila is very popular

  • Levymisaro

    RAILA IS THE PRESIDENT FINAL!

Latest Articles

Most Viewed