A new dawn beckons

October 19, 2008 12:00 am

, BALTIMORE, October 19 – As the days draw closer to the United States Presidential elections, analysts say it is almost sealed that Democratic candidate Barrack Obama will win the November fourth election.

This follows a commanding lead enjoyed by Mr Obama against his Republican challenger John McCain.

“It will take a miracle for McCain to win at this point,” Professor Larry Gibson, a United States election campaign adviser told Capital News on Saturday.

“Barrack Obama is solidly ahead particularly in the electoral vote and I think the clearest indication is that he is ahead in all the hotly contested states apart from one which is Ohio,” he added.

Professor Gibson added that  with the outcome of Wednesday’s presidential debate, it was unlikely that Obama’s supporters would change in the remaining two weeks. in the third and final debate, Mr Obama led by 58 percent while the Mr McCain trailed with 31 percent.

Professor Gibson said Mr Obama’s consistency in the change campaign and the unpopularity of President George Bush had also influenced his popularity.

“MCains campaigns have changed direction many times. It started off as one in which he was emphasing his superior experience but then he selected an inexperienced person from a national perspective to be his vice president. So, the experience gauge came off,” he said.

He added: "Then came the maverick period, the tax campaign,  then they switched to an attack mode."

Senator Obama, who has been on the lead throughout the campaign in various opinion polls, made record by becoming the first African- American to vie for presidency on a main party ticket and has used the “change’ slogan since he started his campaign.
“I expect that we will see some additional changes in the McCain campaign over the next two weeks but they are sort of running out of time.”

In most opinion polls, Mr Obama has been described as more composed and focused compared to his rival who has been accused of centering more on bringing down the Democratic nominee.
However a new opinion poll conducted by CNN showed that Mr McCain is closing in the margin with Mr Obama now leading by eight points.

“I suspect that the race factor has already been reflected in the numbers. Probably if Mr Obama was not an African American, whereas he is ahead now an average of eight to 10 points he could be ahead by 15 to 20 points,” Professor Gibson remarked.
He however said it may not be a dominant factor in the outcome of the forthcoming election saying most opinion polls indicated that America was ready to vote for a black president.

“This has been demonstrated in the primary elections where Obama did well in States where there are almost no African Americans.”

He said that Mr Obama had also benefited greatly from the unpopularity of President Bush and the failure by the Republican candidate to act early to distinguish himself from the incumbent.

“I think when we look back at this election a year from now, a lot of people will say McCain sealed his doom when he selected Sarah Palin as his running mate.”


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